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Current
Ethiopian Affairs: Ethnic Conflict, State-Level
Confrontational Politics, and anti-Tigray Frenzy
Ghelawdewos
Araia, PhD November
26, 2018
In
this essay, I will systematically address the
current messy Ethiopian affairs by employing the
interpretive methodology in order to further
elucidate the intricate Ethiopian phenomenon.
Although I am using my own interpretation and
explanation, it should be known that the
interpretive method was first introduced by Max
Weber in the late 19th to early 20th
centuries. The interpretive method is intended to
reconstruct the objective and subjective
rationality, to meaningfully understand human
behavior and motives, and to study social trends
and problems.
In
order to successfully analyze and critically
examine the Ethiopian situation, thus, I will
first depend on my own previous writings that are
relevant to this essay, and then proceed to
interpreting the Ethiopian crisis. On July 4,
2018, in an article entitled “The Ascendance of
a New Regime and Contradictory Policies and
Measures in Ethiopian Politics”, I argued that
that the present crisis is engendered due to the
following reasons: 1) “They [Ethiopians] have no
knowledge of the rich and proud history of
Ethiopia; 2) they lack political consciousness; 3)
they are unable to make linkage with the legacy of
the patriotic pan-Ethiopian movements (e.g. the
Ethiopian Student Movement); 4)they have lost the
common Ethiopian identity and embraced rather a
much narrower identity.”1
The
above rationale and more specifically the four
ingredients as contributing factors to the crisis
were further reinforced in my other article,
“Political Leadership and Political Economy in
Contemporary Ethiopian Politics”. The central
theme of the article is by and large summarized as
follows:
In
this article, I will discuss the basic tenets of
political leadership and political economy in the
context of the current crisis in Ethiopia and in
light of the ethnic-based disturbances that are
quite enigmatic to explain, but for all intents
and purposes it looks that ethno-nationalist
tendencies and practices targeting certain ethnic
groups, are artificially inseminated by some
forces who wish to see Ethiopia torn apart by
civil wars. I am of the opinion that these
disturbances will eventually subside and the
ulterior motives of the obscure forces will fail,
but at this juncture of their history, Ethiopians
are required to stand in unison and cannot afford
to stand by and watch when a nation-wide crisis
hovers over Ethiopia.2
Despite
my reflections and critical observations of the
Ethiopian situation and my fervent wish of a
peaceful, stable, and prosperous Ethiopia,
however, the crisis continued unabated and got
worse in some parts of the country, and it is
manifested in the killings of thousands and
displacement of millions of Ethiopians. At this
point, quite frankly, I got desperate and
terrified and I hurriedly composed one Amharic
article entitled ታሪካችሁን
ብታውቁ ምን
ያህል አንድ
ሕዝብ
መሆናችሁን
ትገነዘባላችሁ፡
ልዩ መልእክት
ለኢትዮጵያ
ወጣቶችና
ለዩኒቨርሲቲ
ተማሪዎች
(“If
you know your history, you would recognize that
you are indeed one people: special message to the
Ethiopian youth and university students)3
Although
I was desperate, as stated above, the hope in me
and my faith in the Ethiopian people was not
squandered yet, and I was able to contribute
another article whose title is self-explanatory:
“Like the Benu-Bird, Ethiopia Must Rise
from the Ashes,” and this is what I argued then:
Ethiopia
is a great nation that has proved to itself and
the world its resilience against trying
circumstances and outright colonial attempts and
subjugations. For this reason and other factors,
the country remained a jewel in the crown for
Africa and pride as well as symbol of independence
for the Black Diaspora. Ironically, however, the
present generation of Ethiopians seems to suffer
from amnesia to the greatness of Ethiopia and the
patriotic pan-Ethiopian agenda of its forebears,
and on the contrary they have wittingly or
unwittingly embraced narrow ethno-national
proclivities; hence, the present ethnic-warfare
that has afflicted much of Ethiopia.4
In
a recent interview of Abate Kisho, former
President of the Southern Ethiopian Nationalities
and Peoples, with Walta TV, when asked by the
interviewer, “why they could not envision the
present ethnic conflict when they planned to
demarcate Ethiopia into ethnic/language regional
states” (not verbatim), he responded by saying,
“no we had no vision of that…we couldn’t see
it” (not verbatim); he was being candid and
frank, but the dearth of vision was a collective
EPRDF deficiency; the ruling party was simply
unable to forecast the consequences of
ethnocentric politics. However, with an average IQ
and some rational intelligence (endowed to all
human beings), I was able to predict the aftermath
of ethnically divided Ethiopia; here is an excerpt
of it:
The
TGE’s [Transitional Government of Ethiopia]
policy of Kilil and self-determination is
commendable, but the consequence of fragmentation
as a result of new wave of ethnic political
consciousness, and the inability of some minority
nationalities to become economically and
politically viable, would ultimately preoccupy
Ethiopians to otherwise unforeseen problem.5
Nevertheless,
my prediction reflected mostly the possibility of
ethnic conflicts and civil wars but not the
complete breakdown of law and order and the
inability or incapacity (or perhaps reluctance) of
the Government to restore the rule of law.
Currently, with the breakdown of law and order,
Articles 14, 15, 16, and 17 of the Ethiopian
constitution are violated. These Articles
respectively are about rights of life, security,
and liberty; now, Ethiopians are being killed
everywhere and they have neither security nor
guarantee against arbitrary arrest (Article 17 #2)
Articles
19 and 20 (1) of the constitution are about rights
of person arrested and rights of person accused,
but they are not enforced when it comes to
practical matters of arrests and accusations. A
good example of this constitutional order
(disorder) is the arbitrary arrest of Major
General Kinfe Dagnew, former director of the
state-owned Metals and Engineering Corporation (Metec).
I would not be in a position to advocate on behalf
of General Kinfe, for I don’t know him nor do I
have any knowledge of what he did when he was
director of Metec. However, I could reasonably
assume that the General run the company along with
board members chaired by Demeke Mekonnen, the Vice
President of Ethiopia. Knife could not administer
such a large military-industrial complex with 17
subsidiaries and 19,000 employees without the
knowledge of the Board members and the Vice
President, and also without the involvement of
other subservient managers in the hierarchy of
Metec. Therefore, Kinfe should not be the only
wrong doer if at all he committed such misconduct;
Demeke Mekonnen should equally be charged for the
operation of Metec and the improper behavior of
its top officials. The VP might defend himself by
saying, “I was not aware of…and/or I had no
knowledge of…” but that would not be a good
defense in the court of law (especially if the
court is independent): not knowing is tantamount
to lack of responsibility when one, in fact, is
hired and assigned to oversee a giant company like
Metec.
According
to Article 46 (2) of the constitution, “States
shall be delimited on the basis of settlement
patterns, language, identity, and consent of the
peoples concerned.” I personally recall the
distribution of the draft constitution among the
people (including Diaspora Ethiopians) for
discussion and feedback, but there was no such
thing as “consent of the peoples”; in the
final analysis, it was the Government’s
arbitrary decision that delimited the regional
states, and the present ethno-national skirmishes
and conflicts are directly correlated with the
formation of the Kilils.
Article
51 (1), which states that the Federal Government
“shall protect and defend the constitution”
was clearly and egregiously violated in an
extravaganza massive Bahir Dar demonstration that
was presided over by Degu Andargachew, president
of the Amhara Regional State and Demeke Mekonnen,
the Vice President of Ethiopia. Both leaders
conveyed a clear message to the Ethiopian people
that they would not be governed by the present
constitution; both leaders must have forgotten
that the constitution is the supreme law of
Ethiopia; and unless and until it is amended or
fully abrogated by the parliament and the
Ethiopian people, it will continue to serve as the
highest law of the land.
Before
and after the Bahir Dar showdown, however, Degu
Andargachew violated the Ethiopian constitution by
allowing hooligan forces to attack innocent
Tigrayans in Gondar, Bahir Dar, Woldia, Bati, Tana
Beles, and Metema; he should be charged and tried
in the court of law for the murder of Ethiopian
citizens in the Amhara Regional State.
Article
55 (16) of the constitution states, the House of
Peoples’ Representatives “shall, on its own
initiative, request a joint session of the House
of Federation and the House of Peoples’
Representatives to take appropriate measures when
State authorities are unable to arrest violations
of human rights within their jurisdiction. It
shall, on the basis of the joint decision of the
House, give directives to the concerned State
authorities.”
Why
is it then that the Ethiopian parliament was
unable to take appropriate measures against human
violations in the States when the latter in fact
violate the constitution and were reluctant to
protect citizens from violent attacks? Is it
because the Government as a whole is incapacitated
or it is potentially capable but not willing to
take measures? The latter interpretation, of
course, a cynical interpretation of the
Government’s behavior, but it is to some degree
justifiable vis-à-vis citizens’ suspicion of
the Federal police and the police forces of the
respective regional states which are good for
nothing in the midst of the crisis.
If
one reads sub-articles 4, 6, and 9 of Article 62
between lines, it is abundantly clear that the
Government has a constitutional obligation to
maintain unity among Ethiopians, iron out their
differences if any; and protect the constitution.
Sadly, the Government seems to have opted for
shying away from its obligations and the oath of
officials before the parliament is meant for
ceremonial consumption and not to “serve and
protect” Ethiopian citizens.
The
other contradiction that one observers in the
Government is the fact that it is unwilling to
implement and enforce Article 93 on the
declaration of state of emergency. It is simply
astounding when the Government is reluctant to
declare state of emergency when the entire
Ethiopian nation is in chaos and citizens are
being killed and internally displaced.
Now,
the question remains: who is behind the conflicts
in Ethiopia? One could come with different
interpretations in an attempt to find an answer
for the above question, and as indicated in the
first paragraph of this essay, one resorts to looking
for motives at a time when the crisis of ethnic
conflicts are complicated and deeply intriguing.
In all the conflicts, namely, Oromo vs. Gudji;
Somali vs. Oromo; Sidama vs. Wolita; the expulsion
of the Amhara from Beni-Shangul Gumuz Regional
State; and the Burayu incident, the victims
unequivocally said, “we don’t know the forces
who came to our neighborhood, killed our loved
ones and also burned our property”. The reaction
of the people who became targets in the conflict
compels us to come up with a plausible
interpretation of the actions of unknown,
disguised, and camouflaged forces operating
everywhere in Ethiopia with the sole purpose of
destabilizing the country.
On
top of the mission of destabilizing Ethiopia, one
obvious but devious agenda is the anti-Tigray
movement. Before I delve into this matter,
however, I like to make my position clear with
respect to identity: Although I am from Tigray by
ethnic identity, I have always maintained and
reasoned that the overarching Ethiopian identity
must transcend all ethnic affiliations, because a
pan-Ethiopian agenda in all its facets could
guarantee the unity of the Ethiopian people and
the survival of the regional states, without which
they could not exist let alone operate as
autonomous entities.
Whence
does the anti-Tigray frenzy come from? This too
requires interpretation, although compared to the
general conflicts it is much easier to decipher
and understand. There are five possible
interpretations to the anti-Tigray movement: 1)
for the last two decades, the so-called opposition
of the Ethiopian Diaspora have been campaigning
against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front
(TPLF) and the people of Tigray, without making
distinction between the two; they portrayed the
people of Tigray as minority 6% of the Ethiopian
population who don’t deserve to govern Ethiopia;
some extremists even advocated for the isolation
of Tigray and even committing genocide or pogrom
against the people of Tigray; 2) the uprising in
the Oromia region (mainly around Ambo)
and Amhara region (mainly around Gondar)
were successfully infiltrated by the Diaspora
Ethiopian opposition (operating from Eritrea); 3)
the EPRDF itself was gradually but effectively
undermined by its own top officials that were
surreptitiously connected to the opposition and
foreign forces; 4) the core of the TPLF leadership
that were in favor of the developmental state and
who were in good terms with China were to be
eliminated or isolated; 5) the geopolitics of the
Horn of Africa and the Red Sea zone, in which the
Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates wanted a relatively acquiescent Ethiopian
leadership in order to promote their strategic
interests, and for this reason alone the
“recalcitrant” or “unrepentant” TPLF must
be weakened, encircled, or eliminated.
Given
the above five interpretations, it is possible
that the Amhara Regional State could provoke
border wars with Tigray, but it may backfire due
to unforeseen historical circumstances, and also
for the following reasons: 1) the anti-Tigray
frenzy, by default, has united the people of
Tigray more than any time in their history;
witness the most recent demonstrations of the
people of Tigray in various parts of Tigray
including Setit Humera, Adwa, Aksum, Tembien, and
Alamata; the slogans in all demonstrations were in
favor of rule of law and the brotherhood and unity
of the Ethiopian people; 2) the people of Tigray
have a profound sense of their history (this
applies to other Ethiopians as well) and a solid
and unwavering experience of struggle; 3) while
the enemies of Tigray wished to encircle and
isolate Tigray, a new and unexpected historical
event has occurred on either side of the Ethiopian
and Eritrean border. Immediately after the border
was opened officially, peace was restored and
trade exchanges began in earnest; Eritreans
literally flocked into Tigray and declared their
oneness with the people of Tigray. The fact that
the two peoples reaffirmed their unity is not
surprising because the Eritrean and Tigrayan
(Ethiopian) people are kith and kin, and in terms
of ethnicity, the major linguistic groups found in
Tigray/Ethiopia like Tegrawot, Kunama, Saho, and
Afar are also found in Eritrea; 4) with the
exception of the Amhara Regional State, all other
regional states of Ethiopia are in solidarity with
Tigray although technically they may not be able
to operate in unison due to their disadvantaged
positions; 5) the historical roots of the Amhara
and Tigray people are one and the same; these two
prominent Ethiopian people in many ways are the
same: their languages evolved out of Geez; their
traditional costumes, their religion (Orthodox and
Islam), their traditional foods and culinary, and
their physiognomy are the same and
indistinguishable; it is therefore futile to try
to create discord among these brotherly people,
and the anti-Tigray frenzy ultimately will fail;
6) all regional states, with the exception of the
Amhara Regional State are in favor of the present
official Ethiopian flag with a star in the middle
of it, because they believe it represents the nine
regional states and all nationalities of Ethiopia;
7) the Amhara Regional State or more specifically
the Degu-led administration could face challenges:
a) from other Amhara organizations, including the
Amhara National Movement; and b) from the
re-ignited Kemant (Agaw) movement that has already
entertained the idea of its own Kilil beyond the
special zone right it had achieved years back.
This would become a grand preoccupation for the
Amhara State, let alone engage itself in
protracted war with Tigray.
By
way of concluding, I like to use this opportunity
and send my two-penny worth advice to the Prime
Minister of Ethiopia, Dr, Abiye Ahmed: Give
priority to peace and stability of Ethiopia; and
by consulting with the Council of Ministers, the
parliament, and your own party, the EPRDF, find
ways and means to immediately stop the conflicts
by either deploying the Federal police or by
declaring state of emergency; address the
Ethiopian people once more by emphasizing the
unity of the people and the nation, and by
condemning ethnic conflicts and flagrant ethnic
animosities and clashes; tell the Ethiopian people
that there is no contradiction between the
relations among the people; reassure Ethiopians
that your leadership will continue the advancement
of Ethiopia by injecting some reforms but without
undermining the development agendas of the
previous regimes; reassure Ethiopians that
you’re the leader of all Ethiopians and not of a
certain sectarian group and make them believe you
that you would not be selective and discriminatory
in either appointing individuals to an official
capacity, or responding to their demands and their
proposals; in point of fact, some proposals have
been sent to you by some Ethiopians but you did
not get back to them; you ought to respond to
them.
Finally,
I would be remiss if I don’t mention two
positive initiatives that I witnessed while I
write this essay: 1) The peace mission of
Ethiopian women from all nine regional states is
quite humbling, uplifting, and full of promise; 2)
the Deputy Mayor of Addis Ababa, Ato Takele Uma
Benti, sojourn to Bahir Dar and his address to the
audience on the unity of the Ethiopian people and
his emphasis on Ethiopiawinet is very encouraging
at a time when Ethiopia is in turmoil.
Long
Live Ethiopia!
Notes:
1.
Ghelawdewos
Araia, “The Ascendance of a New Regime and
Contradictory Measures and Policies in Ethiopian
Politics,” July 4, 2018
www.africanidea.org/Ascendnce_Contradictory_measures_Ethiopia.html
2.
Ghelawdewos
Araia, “Political Leadership and Political
Economy in Contemporary Ethiopian Politics”,
August 16, 2018
www.africanidea.org/Contemporary_Ethiopian_politics.html
3.
ገላውዴዎስ
አርአያ
“ታሪካችሁን
ብታውቁ ምን
ያህል አንድ
ሕዝብ
መሆናችሁን
ትገነዘባላችሁ”
ነሐሴ ፴ ፪ ሺ
፲
www.africanidea.org/Ethiopian_youth_know_your
_history.pdf
4.
IDEA
Editorial, “Like the Benu-Bird, Ethiopia Must
Rise from the Ashes”, 9/24/2018
5.
Ghelawdewos Araia, Ethiopia:
The Political Economy of Transition,
University Press of America, 1995, p. 166
All Right
Reserved Copyright © Institute of Development and
Education for Africa (IDEA) 2018; contact Dr.
Ghelawdewos Araia for educational and constructive
feedback via dr.garaia@africanidea.org
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