Election
Eve Reality on the Ground and Possible
Post-election Scenario in Ethiopia
Ghelawdewos
Araia, PhD
May 22, 2015
I
have been following the pre-election debates and
the overall spirit and visible excitement of the
Ethiopian people to cast their votes on May 24,
2015. Despite some shortcomings exhibited by the
contending parties’ representatives, the debates
were nonetheless a learning process for the
Ethiopian people, the political parties running
for office, and the Ethiopian Peoples’
Revolutionary Democratic Party (EPRDF) or the
ruling party. In one form or another, the debates
served as vehicles of enlightenment for the larger
Ethiopian audience. It was clear from the outset
that the 2015 pre-election debates were going to
be by far advanced and civilized compared to the
two previous elections of 2005 and 2010.
However,
smooth and civil debates in countries like
Ethiopia with no prior democratic culture and some
degree of tolerance amongst the fiercely competing
political parties could be tricky. For all intents
and purposes, Ethiopia’s current politics does
not promise a transition to a full-fledged
democracy because the latter requires a change of
mindset on the part of the people, a thorough
psychological preparedness on the part of ruling
party and the opposition parties, and most
importantly the establishment of robust democratic
institutions, that are, for the most part, absent
in Ethiopia. The absence of the latter
institutions, however, should not be squarely put
within the boundaries of the EPRDF or directly
attributed to the ruling party, although arguably
the Government and the ruling party should be held
responsible, at least in the context of
leadership, for the promotion of democratic
culture. In the final analysis, however, all of us
Ethiopians, especially intellectuals and
professionals, should be held accountable for the
delay or acceleration of the establishment of
democracy in Ethiopia.
Despite
the indisputable lack thereof of democracy
(tangible as opposed to rhetorical democracy),
there are some positive developments in Ethiopia.
As we all know, Ethiopia made a transition from a
predominant feudal society that prevailed for
centuries until the outburst of the revolution in
1974 to a jumbled and convoluted socialist
onslaught presided over by the murderous Derg
regime. It is this sinister legacy of the military
junta that the EPRDF has inherited and one could
not thus expect a meaningful transition to
democracy given the absence of the component parts
of democracy.
One
naïve argument often advocated by some
Ethiopians, including supporters of the EPRDF, is
‘the relatively long duration it took for
westerners to establish solid democracies’. This
argument is flawed and unacceptable to me because
the timeline should not be the yardstick for the
founding of democracy; on the contrary, it should
be the honesty, diligence, and commitment of a
people that must guarantee a more hopeful
democratic culture in any given society, including
Ethiopia.
The
many and variegated policy-related themes brought
forth by the various opposition parties and the
EPRDF during the debate, though they make sense in
terms of outlook and general guidelines for
Ethiopia’s forward moving cultural and political
evolutions, may however not impress the Ethiopian
farmers, industrial workers, entrepreneurs,
government employees etc especially when it boils
down to the bread and butter issues. For instance,
the ideological differences of the EPRDF
(developmental state), Medrek (social democracy),
the Ethiopian Democratic Party or EDP (liberalism)
are worthwhile guideline tenets and good for
academic but not for public consumption.
At
this juncture of their history, the Ethiopian
people are demanding for peace, democracy, and
development; and behind the façade of these three
intertwined issues, Ethiopians also want to
jealously guard the unity and territorial
integrity of their country. It is for these main
reasons that 36.2 million have registered and
obtained voting cards in order to cast their votes
for the party of their liking.
So
far, every ordinary Ethiopian citizen interviewed
by the Ethiopian Broadcasting Corporation (EBC)
has expressed its wish of a peaceful and just
election. The opposition parties also entertained
same ideas and the EPRDF seems to have endorsed
the concept of a peaceful and just election
process. However, we have to wait and see for the
practical dimension of the election! At this
point, we can only speculate with respect to the
implementation and outcome of election 2015, but
some symptoms have already been manifested in some
areas to indicate that the election may not at all
be smooth and peaceful. In order to reinforce the
prevalence of negative encounters, entanglements,
and impediments, it is important o make an
objective assessment of the realities on the
ground in Ethiopia. This would help us grapple
with the possible post-election scenario and I
shall return to this hypothetical immersion at the
end of this essay.
What
is the reality on the ground in relation to the
election in Ethiopia? As indicated above, more
than thirty-six million Ethiopians have registered
to vote and they are upbeat and enthusiastic.
Irrespective on the question of independence,
transparency, and accountability of the Ethiopian
National Electoral Board, it seems to me it has
done a relatively commendable job in organizing
the overall election process. More than 45
thousand election polls have been set up
throughout Ethiopia; for the 547 constituencies or
seats of parliament, 1,828 for the people’s
representatives and 3,991 for the regional states
will contest during the election.
The
Unity for Democracy and Justice (UDJ), popularly
known as Kinijit, has fielded 23 candidates in
Addis Ababa alone; in the Amhara Regional State,
where 6.7 million voters have been registered, 17
parties will contest for election and in Tigray
Regional State, six political parties have fielded
their candidates for May 24. In the Southern
Peoples, Nations and Nationalities Regional State
(or simply Southern or Debub), a significant
number of the opposition parties, including the
Ethiopian Democratic Forum or Medrek, Andinet
(Unity Party), EDP, Semayawi or Blue Party, and
the EPRDF have been campaigning to win the hearts
and minds of the people, but some of the
opposition have complained for not getting the
election money in order to move around in the
Southern State. Overall, 21 parties will contest
to win votes in the Southern Regional State. While
the relatively small party of Benishangul-Gumuz
People’s Democratic Party has been campaigning
in its own state, the Tis Abay Western Gojjam
potential voters, as in many other areas of
Ethiopia, have indicated that they will cast their
votes for the party of their choosing. Meanwhile,
many university students including the Wolayta
Sodo University students have positively responded
to the pre-election debates and most of them said,
“it has been a learning platform”.
In
the Hadya zone of the Southern Region, EDP,
Kinijit, Semayawi, Medrek, and the EPRDF have
vigorously campaigned to win the support of the
people and it looks that the opposition, and not
just the Southern Peoples’ Democratic Movement
(affiliated to PM Hailemariam) of the EPRDF, has
garnered support from the people.
In
the Oromia Regional State, the Oromo People’s
Democratic Organization (OPDO) of the EPRDF has
been conducting intensive mobilization of the
people, but here too the opposition parties have
fielded candidates. Among the opposition, the
Medrek leaders, mainly Gebru Gebremariam (the
chair of Medrek) and Merara Guidina seem to have
enjoyed a large following, while their comrade
Beyene Petros encountered a disadvantaged position
in his own Hadya zone of the Southern Region.
In
Tigray, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF/EPRDF)
got the support of the people in such areas as
Hawzen (eastern Tigray), Samre (central), Shire
Endaselassie (western) and Alamata (south). By
contrast, according to the VOA Amharic Service,
the Arena Tigray of Medrek party campaigners were
met with violence. The VOA Amharic Service field
reporter said he had witnessed the attacked Medrek
vehicle and he interviewed local individuals and
found out that the Arena functionaries have been
attacked by some 40-50 gangs in Atsbi, eastern
Tigray. Eight Arena Tigray members were stabbed
and two seriously injured, and among the victims
is Hedrom Haileselassie, who sustained head
injury.
The
VOA Amharic Service also reported similar
incidents of violence against the opposition
parties in Bedele (Illu Aba Bor), Jimma, Agaro,
and Wilkite. The gentleman who was interviewed by
VOA/Amharic and who witnessed police intimidation
and the confiscation of their belongings
(including cell phones) is Bekele Gerba. According
to this report, Mderek members were also attacked
in Bonga, Keffa zone of the Southern Regional
State, and one man was killed in the Gimbo Goata
area of the same region.
So,
it looks the peaceful, democratic, and just
election have already been challenged. I
personally am crossing my fingers that Ethiopia
would make a smooth transition of power, but it is
incumbent upon the EPRDF and its attendant
government security apparatuses to maintain peace
and order and protect the opposition party leaders
and their rank-and-file members. I do not harbor
any illusion that the Ethiopian Government would
guarantee rights and safety for all activists of
the opposition, but I would expect it to do the
minimum: Protect citizens from violent attacks,
and police should not be instructed nor given the
powers to intimidate opposition election
candidates and their supporters. This is the
minimum a government can do and must do!
Now,
I like to discuss the possible post-election
scenario in Ethiopia. As I have indicated in
several of my previous writings, given the overall
political maturity and level of political
parties’ organization, and the lack of
democratic culture and tolerance, the EPRDF would
definitely win the majority of the seats in the
parliament. This time, if all goes well and the
pre-election violence in some areas subsides, it
is highly probable that the opposition parties
could win a minimum of twenty to thirty seats and
a maximum of fifty to seventy seats in the
national parliament. Ethiopia would be better off
with a sizable opposition seats in the parliament
especially for a sound policy making and overall
law-making parameters, and only then can we say
with confidence that the country has laid a
cornerstone of democracy. However, even if the
opposition manages to win a hundred seats (a very
unlikely scenario), it may not be easy to
challenge the EPRDF.
The
EPRDF, as opposed to the opposition parties, has a
distinct advantage not only because it is the
ruling party and controls the government
machinery, but also because it has managed to
influence and control the various regional states
via its member parties. For instance, it controls
much of Tigray through the TPLF; the Amhara State
through Amhara National Democratic Movement; the
Oromia Region through the OPDO; and the Southern
Region through the PM Hailemariam affiliated
party. On top of this, the EPRDF controls other
regions like Gambella, Benishangul-Gumuz, Afar,
and Somali Regional State through an effective
patron-client networking. None of the opposition
could enjoy the political status of the EPRDF,
except for Medrek which comes close in terms of an
all-Ethiopia ethnic composition. However, Medrek
is seriously challenged by lack of finances and
relatively weak organizational capability.
Apparently,
the election process is monitored and observed by
an African Union Election Observers Team and also
by election committees representing the Ethiopian
people who would monitor the elections at the
respective polling stations. But, it is
technically impossible for the AU team and the
local observers to monitor and observe the
election in all Ethiopia. Moreover, it would be
easier to observe the major cities but quite a
formidable daunting task to monitor the small
towns and rural areas.
If
all goes well, Ethiopia will conduct a peaceful,
democratic, and just election on May 24 and the
outcome will be announced seven days later. On the
contrary, if violence ensues in some pockets
around the country, it may beget a larger violence
and subsequently a much deeper disruption and
disorder. This scenario is frightening and
unsettling, and Ethiopians in general and the
Government in particular should do their best to
mitigate violence and disorder.
Ethiopia,
of course, should learn from its own experience
and the experiences of other African countries
like Ghana, Senegal, and Botswana where smooth
transitions to power are witnessed every election
season. Even Nigeria, the troubled giant of
Africa, has conducted a successful election on
March 8, 2015 despite some missteps on the part of
the ruling party and the incumbent government.
Finally, the All Progressive Congress (APC) of the
opposition led by Muhammadu Buhari beat Good luck
Jonathan’s People’s Democratic Party (PDP) by
two million votes. Put otherwise, in all 35 states
of Nigeria, Buhari won 14.9 million votes in
contradistinction to that of Jonathan’s 12.8
million votes. Following the elections, Jonathan
conceded defeat to Buhari and Nigerians began
conducting their daily routine without any
disturbance. This kind of civil process and
outcome is what I wish for Ethiopia, and I urge my
fellow Ethiopians not to compare Ethiopia with the
advanced western democracies but to stay focused
with African democracies.
All
Rights Reserved. Copyright © Institute of
Development and Education for Africa (IDEA), 2015.
Dr. Ghelawdewos Araia can be contacted for
educational and constructive feedback via dr.garaia@africanidea.org
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