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Prophesy
or Political Expediency, Barack Obama May Become
the First Black President of the United States
Ghelawdewos
Araia
October
16, 2008
Following the three presidential debates, all
indications, including the latest polls, clearly
show that Barack Obama is on the lead and the
probability is very high now that he would become
the first Black president of the United States.
Some like to believe that it is predetermination
in regards to Obama [or any other Black political
leader] assuming the highest office in the United
States and that special moment in history has
arrived. In point of fact, true to the somewhat
superstitious belief and by sheer coincidence,
Robert Kennedy prophesied in 1968 and this is what
he said:
Things
are moving fast in race relations, a Negro could
be president in 40 years. There is no question
about it in the next 40 years a Negro can achieve
the same position that my brother has. Prejudice
exists and probably will continue to, but we have
tried to make progress and we are making progress.
We are not going to accept the status quo.
Bobby
Kennedy may have done an amazing prediction given
the turbulent and tumultuous American politics of
the 1960s. Unfortunately, however, he would not be
able to witness his prophecy or his wish come
true; and prediction aside, at long last, America
and the world will witness the first
African-American president in the White House. The
United States, indeed has come a long way: From
the Emancipation Proclamation to the Voting Rights
Act of 1965 alone is one hundred solid years
whereby African Americans, though underdogs and
victims of racism and de jure
segregation, played a major role in influencing
American politics in general and the electoral
process in particular. And to redeem the wrongs
wrought against African Americans, when President
Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Voting Rights Act of
1965, he said: �The Right to vote is the most
basic right without which all others are
meaningless. It gives people � people as
individuals � control over their own
destinies�the vote is the most powerful
instrument ever devised by man for breaking down
injustice and destroying the terrible walls which
imprison men because they are different from other
men.�1
Since
the Voting Rights Act, slightly over four decades
have elapsed and in due course the United States
has made remarkable progress in race relations
although vestiges of racism and racial prejudice
are still well and alive. The psychology of racism
is best exemplified by the recent incident in
western Pennsylvania where some Whites explicitly
and in no uncertain terms declared that they would
not vote for Obama because he is Black. This might
seem astounding but it is not altogether
surprising given the deeply rooted racially
divided United States society. For all intents and
purposes, racism has subsided but it did not taper
off completely and with the coming of Obama to
power, America would undergo major restructuring
in race relations and hopefully for the better.
The
most important points of discussion that could
reinforce and substantiate our prediction that
Obama could become the next and first
African-American president were already examined
in my previous article, entitled If Barack
Obama Becomes the Next President of the United
States (www.africanidea.org/barack_obama.html)
and the present article, in effect, is sequel to
the former. The important variables that could
have contributed to the making of the first Black
president is Barack Obama�s own political
persona, vision, sincerity, and above all his
economic and foreign policy agendas that could,
convincingly, lift the United States up from its
current economic crisis and overseas war morass
respectively.
The
reason why we say Obama will win is not based on
wishful thinking but also on critical
extrapolation of the overall characteristics and
political agenda of the two candidates, John
McCain and Barack Obama. The two presidential
candidates are antidotes in many ways although
sometimes, and quite obviously so, they found
common grounds with respect to the rescue of a
debilitating national economy, for instance. By
and large, while the Obama campaign is
issue-oriented that of McCain is tainted with
character assassination. In some instances (as
demonstrated in the second debate for instance)
McCain was immersed in tactics of deliberate
reversal of questions directed to him by the
moderator, Tom Brokaw. On the contrary, Obama not
only did he answer questions succinctly and
coherently but he was also consciously specific.
Similarly, on the third and final debate when Bob
Shafer of CBS forwarded questions in regards to
domestic policies, which the debate intended to
address, John McCain for the most part was
deviating from the questions while Barack Obama
was calm and specific on the issues.
In
most of the campaigns thus far conducted,
wittingly or unwittingly, McCain succumbed to the
usual rhetoric of nice-sounding nostrum of
�patriotism�, �experience�, and �foreign
policy expertise� without any substantive
rationale and as a result his policies remain
ambiguously suspended. Whenever Obama corners
McCain on issue-related arguments such as
�talking to enemies�, he either comes up with
some convenient simplification of the issues or
employs distraction from the more pressing
problems. If indeed McCain claims that he has more
foreign policy experience than Obama, he should
have understood the elementary notion of diplomacy
in which, depending on the circumstances, strong
rivals are tolerated and relatively weak enemies
are accommodated.
The
McCain camp�s argument on experience and foreign
policy is cajoled to the point of meaninglessness
and by default has benefited the Obama camp.
Barack Obama has gained momentum and is leading in
the polls not only because he was lucid, cogent,
and convincing on a variety of issues pertaining
to the economy, health, education, jobs, Iraq,
Afghanistan, and foreign policy, but also because
his opponent was spectacularly implausible with
respect to his credibility. If it were not for
this objective reality, Obama would have not led
McCain by 10% in traditionally republican states
like Virginia or the Republican couple (husband
and wife) teachers in South Dakota would have not
gravitated toward Obama and vote democratic this
time.
To
be fair to McCain, however, it is not his campaign
only that is propagating smear and negative
campaigns against Obama. In fact more than McCain,
it is the right wing radio talk hosts such as Rush
Limbo and major television networks such as Fox
News that have incessantly bruised and crucified
Barack Obama by mystifying social reality,
fomenting negative attributes, and distorting his
background and his identity. The pathological
liars of the extreme right media are seemingly
tactful at their toxic activity and are artfully
deceptive, but luckily and interestingly in a
democratic society divergent views are entertained
freely, and that is the beauty of the United
States. Therefore, a totally different version of
social reality, i.e. diametrically opposite to Fox
News, is entertained by MSNBC, thanks in large
measure to Keith Olberman and his colleagues. In
between the two extremes lies CNN and it somehow
maintains the delicate balance of objective
journalism, but if I had to choose and recommend
people for more objective, fair, and educational
media, I would suggest Lehrer News Hour of PBS and
Charlie Ross� show in the same TV network.
Obama
cannot do much to the bewilderment of ordinary
citizens who have been misguided due to massive
disinformation concocted by the conservative
media. He has made his political stance clear a
hundred and one times, even to the extent of
reassuring the American public of his national
identity and his religious belief. Obama may have
considerable reservation and misgiving on the
smear campaigns by right wing blogs, radio talk
shows and television networks, and local
newspapers, but he has no option other than
educate the voters and move on to achieve his
goals.
Barrack
Obama, though now a global phenomenon and very
popular in the United States among various ethnic
and racial groups, he encountered negative
reaction or indifference from some Black
personalities in the media, academia, government,
and in the larger society. Due to lack of
political consciousness engendered by lack of
Black leadership, some African Americans who
considered themselves as Republican affiliates
viewed Obama as incapable to be the next leader of
the United States and other relatively young
African Americans portrayed him as not �one of
them� without understanding the dynamics of
American politics and without fully grasping why
Obama is running for the office of the presidency.
Barack Obama is not running as Black to represent
only Black interests. He is a rainbow candidate
who is running for the interest of all Americans.
The so-called intellectual Black elite is no
different from the latter and it has exhibited on
a number of occasions to either undermine the
Obama factor or forward direct criticism against
the only Black candidate in public forums. One
example of this group is the half hearted and
pretentious support of Cornel West in Tavis
Smiley�s PBS show. West is concerned with the
fear of race relations being diluted by the Obama
factor although he said he �supports the
brother.�
Tavis
Smiley, although to his credit he invited to his
show a number of Black and White candidates who
support Obama, he clearly was indignant, if not
opposed, to the Black candidate.
On October 13, 2008, Tavis had Richard
Belzar on his show and at the end of the show, the
guest said �Barack Obama is going to win by a
huge landslide,� a statement which, I think, was
unsettling to the Obama bashers. On the same day,
Ted Koppel�s The Last Lynching was aired
on Discovery Channel and it was obvious that the
message of the documentary actually reinforces
Robert Kennedy�s prophecy mentioned above, but
beyond the purpose of the film Ted Koppel would
remain in the annals of American history for his
contributions when the Black elite is unable to do
it. On top of the indifference and bashing, some
Black celebrities are eerily quiet on the historic
campaign in general and Obama�s candidacy in
particular. What happened to Jesse Jackson, Al
Sharpton, Charlie Rangle and other prominent
African American leaders? Are they not going to
say something on this historic election season?
Sometimes it is frightening when the Black leaders
fail to take action and seize the moment, but I
like to give them the benefit of the doubt and
wish to think that they did not get an opportunity
to express themselves, although I am soon reminded
that there was such an opportunity for Sidney
Poitier, for instance, in the Larry King show.
King asked him not only once but twice whether
Poitier was excited of the Obama candidacy, but he
was silent and did not say anything.
In
the end, as the IDEA Editorial, entitled The
Obama Factor and American Electoral Politics,
of January 2008 puts it, �Obama, therefore may
continue to be a charismatic persona representing
hope and change, but in the end it is the
Electoral College, and not the popular vote, that
would decide the selection of the would be
president of the United States of America.�2
So,
what is the Electoral College? As the political
scientist Charles V. Hamilton explains, �after
presidential candidates have campaigned for months
(usually, counting the primaries, for at least ten
month) the voters decide. Or do they? The
practical answer is yes. The technical
answer is no. Technically, Americans do
elect their president when they go to the polls on
the first Tuesday of November of the election
year�according to the Constitution, the
President is elected by a group of people called electors.
These are the people Americans vote for on
the first Tuesday of November. The electors, who
represent the presidential candidates� parties,
then meet in the state capital a few weeks later
and really cast votes for their party�s
candidate. Thus, the voters are actually voting
for party electors who then vote for the party
candidate. After this �second� presidential
election, the ballots are sent to the U. S.
Congress, where they are counted and the official
announcement of the winner is made.�3
The
Electoral College, of course, is not going to
blindly select the would be president contrary to
the general will and the national interest of the
nation and it will seriously consider the general
trend in elections that have occurred in the past
and that could possibly regenerate in the present
election. As per Hamilton, there are four types of
elections that have characterized the American
electoral process over the years: 1) deviating, 2)
realigning, 3) maintaining, 4) reinstating. �The
first type occurs when a party wins rather
substantially in the face of indications (namely,
its expected vote based on voter registration) to
the contrary. �This is strictly a result of
short-term forces � the appeal of a particular
candidate, or aversion to the other candidate, or
the importance of specific issue�. Of greater
importance is the election leading to a realigning
change � often referred to as a �critical
election.� Here, we see voters shifting party
loyalties (as well as new voters coming into the
process) causing a long-term alteration in the
base of the parties. This has occurred only three
times in American presidential history. The first
was with the rise of the Republican Party during
the time of the Civil War. The second was in 1896
following the depression of 1893, and the third
which benefited the Democratic Party, was in 1932
following the 1929 stock market crash.�4
If
we follow the above election typology, deviating
from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party
is obvious as has been substantiated above by
example. Thanks to the Obama skillful and
high-tech registration drive, the Democratic Party
was able to register millions of new voters and
attract old voters to their orbit as well. With
respect to �critical election,� which is
associated with crisis, in fact it is quite
fitting to witness the victory of Obama following
the Iraq war and the Wall Street crisis. Once
Obama assumes power, the Democratic Party may
continue to maintain and dominate American
politics and reinstating elections may take place
long after both fundamental
restructuring in the government and in the economy
takes place and the American voters are reassured
beyond any doubt.
There
is no doubt that Barack Obama would become the
first African American president of the United
States and the healing process will begin for both
America and the world. A new era of prosperity and
global peace could regenerate with a new spirit
radiating from the White House.
Notes:
1.
The New York Times, August 7, 1965,
p. A8, quoted in Charles V. Hamilton, American
Government, Foresman and Company, 1982, p. 221
2.
Institute of Development and
Education for Africa (IDEA), Inc., The Obama
Factor and American Electoral Politics, www.africanidea.org/obama.html,
January 4, 2008
3.
Charles V. Hamilton, op cit, p. 239
4.
Charles v. Hamilton, ibid, 232-232
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