IDEA
Editorial on Current Politics in Ethiopia and
Kenya
September 20, 2017
Precautionary Measures in Ethiopian Politics can
Mitigate and/or Overcome Local and Regional
Conflicts
Compared
to conflict-ridden countries like Somalia, South
Sudan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo,
Ethiopia is by far stable and peaceful, although
the country has never been free of conflicts in
its enduring long history; a good example of
ethnic conflict in Ethiopia is very much reflected
by the present Oromo-Somali territorial disputes
and confrontations. Long before the regional
states were established, there were intermittent
conflicts between the many transhumance of
Ethiopia, and the present conflict between the
Oromo and Somali Ethiopians could have been
exacerbated by the pastoral mode of production of
the two peoples; more specifically and arguably,
the Oromo-Somali confrontations are manifestations
of disputed grazing areas and water sites (wells
and streams). This IDEA editorial is interested in
exploring the brief history of the conflicts and
concludes with a possible permanent resolution to
the conflicts.
Three years after the EPRDF
seized state power, i.e. in 1994 Eastern Ethiopia
was immersed in the Oromo-Somali confrontations,
and as a result close to five dozen people died on
either side. Then the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF)
condemned the Ethiopian Somali Regional State for
encroaching on an Oromia territory. In December
2003, another conflict broke out between the two
groups over water and 20,000 people were
displaced; in December 2005, when the Ethiopian
government decided to transfer land from the
Somali region to the Oromia Regional State,
violence erupted again and both sides were hurt.
However, the land transfer that was decided via
so-called referendum was never implemented.
In April 2017, there was yet
another conflict between the Oromo and the Somali,
and because the conflict did not get any
resolution, it is not surprising that Eastern
Ethiopia is again engulfed with conflict. The
Government should have taken necessary steps and
measures to either mitigate or altogether overcome
the conflict between the Oromo and Somali peoples.
One major problem that bewitched the Ethiopian
Government is its inability to become proactive;
on the contrary, the Government has been reacting
to deep-seated social and political problems. The
Government should understand that reactive
politics does not solicit meaningful and permanent
solution to the Oromo-Somali antagonistic
relations and to other conflicts elsewhere in
Ethiopia. On the other hand, proactive politics
stimulates creative and crafty solutions to major
problems any country encounters. Moreover, in
proactive politics, there won’t be surprises
because the underlying dynamic of socio-political
problems is reasonably predicted. We at IDEA
strongly believe that proactive politics is
synonymous with precautionary measures and we
recommend that the Ethiopian Government should
adopt it as part of its governance policy in order
to garner ready-made solutions to societal
problems.
When Negeri Lencho, Minister of Communication, was
asked about the conflict, he reassured the
Ethiopian audience by saying that the
confrontation has tapered off, but he also said
“there are armed groups in the area.” In a
similar vein, but with slightly different approach
to the conflict, Prime Minister Hailemariam
recommended that the Federal Police patrol the
main roads of the conflict zones. But this kind of
recommendation would not contribute to a permanent
solution in regards to ethnic animosity and
subsequent skirmishes and an all-out violence. We
at IDEA understand the Government’s difficult
position in presiding over complex and complicated
Ethiopian phenomenon, and it is easier to diagnose
what is wrong than to cure it, but if the
Government seriously considers the peoples’ wish
and monitors their hearts and minds, it could
successfully resolve the conflict-related problems
surrounding the Oromo and Somali peoples.
Quite frankly, the hearts and
minds of the people were expressed in the meetings
of elders of the two people; they have told the
world that they are brothers and sisters, have a
lot in common, and have lived side by side for
millennia. However, some elders from the Somali
region said that the OLF is behind the conflict,
and may be Negeri Lencho’s implicit portrayal of
an “armed group” are OLF insurgents. If indeed
the latter are involved in the conflict, the
Government must bear in mind that it cannot
dissuade the culprit organization and an
alternative and viable option could be to deploy
the Ethiopian Defense Forces, coupled by the Oromo
People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO)
Executive Committee initiative in reaching out and
rehabilitating the displaced people.
Ethiopia should not tolerate any
social and/or political problem that could
undermine the unity of the Ethiopian people and
distract Ethiopians from a more pressing agenda of
peace and development, and the Government has an
obligation to meet all preconditions to national
development.
The
Enigma of the Kenyan Electoral Process of 2017 and
Legitimate Consensus
On August 8 2017, the incumbent
Uhuru Kenyatta declared victory in the election,
but his opponent Raila Odinga, far from conceding
defeat, disputed the election results and filed
charge against the Electoral Commission and took
it to the Supreme Court. Subsequently, the Court
ruled that “the election board had committed
irregularities that rendered the August 8 vote
invalid and overturned the incumbent President
Uhuru Kenyatta’s victory, which had [won] by a
margin of 1.4 million votes.” (Source: Reuters).
Now, that the highest court of Kenya reversed the
election results, another election is due to take
place on October 17, 2017, and although Odinga is
satisfied by the Court’s decision in
invalidating Uhuru’s victory claim, he does not
have trust on the corrupt Kenyan political system.
It is important to know why Uhuru and Odinga
dominate the Kenyan political landscape. Both of
them are sons of Jomo Kenyatta and Ojinga Odinga,
the founding fathers of Kenya, first president and
first vice-president respectively. The two
founding fathers were highly educated and astute
statesmen, and both of them were authors of
important books such as Facing
Mt. Kenya (Kenyatta) and Not
Yet Uhuru (Odinga). By the time Kenyatta and
Odinga assumed state power at independence in
1963, Kenya heralded bright future for the people
of Kenya and Kenya was poised for a success story
in economic development in Africa. Now, however,
it looks that the juniors Kenyatta (Uhuru) and
Odinga (Raila) have turned Kenyan politics into a
dynastic rivalry and the country seems to have
lost legitimate consensus in the art of politics.
Uhuru Miugai Kenyatta served as a
member of parliament representing Gatundu South
from 2002 to 2013, i.e. until he becomes the
president of Kenya. He was also Minister of Local
Government under Daniel Arap Moi in 2001 and held
the same position in 2008 under Mwai Kibaki.
Moreover, he served as Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Trade in 2008, and Minister of Finance
from 2009 to 2012. Uhuru was a member of the Kenya
African National Union (KANU), a party that led
Kenya to independence, and later he became a
member of the Jubilee Party of Kenya.
Jaramogi Raila Odinga was a member of parliament
since 1992; Minster of Energy from 2001 to 2002;
and Minster of Roads, Public Works and Housing
from 2003 to 2005. When Odinga run for office of
the presidency against Mwai Kibaki in 2007, he was
a member of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
Due to lack of legitimate consensus, however, the
election of 2007 turned out to be very
controversial and violent in Kenyan history, and
sadly 1100 Kenyans lost their lives in due course
of the post election chaos. For further
information on the 2007 election and violence,
readers can make reference to The
Kenya Political Crisis: Diagnosis and Prognosis:
www.africanidea.org/kenya_crisis.html
Learning from
the 2007 election, Raila Odinga resorted to
forming a five-party coalition named National
Super Alliance (NASA), which included among other
parties, Forum for the Restoration of Democracy of
Moses Wetangula and Wiper Democratic Movement of
Kalonzo Musyoka. Coalition party formation has now
become a trend in Kenyan politics and long before
NASA was founded, the National Rainbow Coalition (NARC)
of Mwai Kibaki was organized. In coalition of
political parties, diverse groups across ethnic
lines are enabled to work together and more votes
could be garnered at national level.
Whatever the outcome of the October 17, 2017 rerun
of presidential election is going to be, the two
contending leaders and their supporters should
uphold legitimate consensus and gracefully accept
the winning leader and party insofar the election
is free and fair. In the event the election result
stir controversy, however, Uhuru Kenyatta and
Raila Odinga must form a coalition government and
share power rather than resort to violence and
drag Kenya into unnecessary bloody conflict. It is
time for the Kenyan leaders to set an agenda of
peaceful co-existence and hail Kenya toward
progress and a more democratic and peaceful
nation. If this IDEA recommendation is realized,
Kenyan politics will no longer be enigmatic and
legitimate consensus will reign in the nation.
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