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Here
is why the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
won’t be a Danger to Egypt’s Water Necessity
Ghelawdewos
Araia, PhD
October 7, 2017
This
essay, in effect, is a response to a recent USA
Today special piece entitled “Here is Why
Egypt’s Nile River is in Danger” and
contributed by Jacob Wirtschaffer on September 27,
2017.
Time
and again, I have scribbled on the Nile issue
pertaining to the concerns of Egypt with respect
to shortage of flow of water as a result of the
GERD construction in Ethiopia. To some extent,
Egypt’s concern is legitimate because the
country would simply cease to exist without the
Nile; the Nile indeed is the lifeline of the
Egyptians and it is not without reason that the
ancient Egyptians of Kemet worshipped the god of
the Nile named Hapi. However, Egyptian
politicians, for the most part, are jittery when
it comes to the waters of the Nile and their
concern is overblown and out of proportion, and at
times they exhibit unnecessary and infantile
provocation against Ethiopia. This kind of
misconduct is duly manifested in Egypt’s
material support to some disgruntled Ethiopian
opposition forces in the Diaspora, and it is
further manifested in setting up military site in
Eritrea, and attempting to undo the new agreement
of the Riparian States that denies Egypt’s
predominance on the use of the Nile waters.
Back in 2013, in my article entitled: ”Egypt has
no Choice but to Cooperate with Ethiopia on the
issue of the Nile,”1 I suggested that
Egypt should transcend confrontational politics
and embrace and pursue rather cooperative gestures
toward Ethiopia in order to garner sufficient flow
of water in spite of the GERD. Initially, the
Egyptian leaders were stubborn and adamant and
they thought they could pressurize Ethiopia and
hoped that Ethiopia would either postpone or
altogether abandon the project of the GERD. Soon,
however, the Egyptians realized that the
construction of the GERD is not solely government
initiative but it is also coupled by the steadfast
determination of the Ethiopian people to begin and
complete such a grand project. In point of fact,
Ethiopians have not only poured money for the GERD
but also sung in unison Endejemernew
Enchersewalen, meaning ‘as we have initiated
it, we shall complete it'.
The terrifying grace of the Ethiopians, at one
point, had an impact on the Egyptian modus vivendi
(preliminary agreement of conflicting parties for
coexistence) and modus operandi (methods and
approaches used to realize a certain
rapprochement), and President El Sisi, in
particular, showed propensity toward a peaceful
and diplomatic talk with Ethiopia on the first
month of 2015. That was a wonderful thing, I said
to myself then, and I was prompted to write
another article that somehow reflected the new and
positive mood of the Egyptians. The title of the
essay was “The Historic Ethiopian-Egyptian
Renewed Diplomacy and Cooperation”, and I
stated, in part, the following: “I am gratified
to witness the renewed Ethiopian-Egyptian
diplomacy and cooperation after much turbulence,
mistrust, and bellicose political climate that
have griped the two nations for decades.”2
Now,
again, to my chagrin, my gratification has
evaporated in thin air when the Egyptians defected
from the Ethiopia-Egypt-Sudan agreement and began
employing their old tactics and resorted to
anti-Ethiopia policy in general and against the
completion of the GERD in particular.
Nevertheless, Egyptian politicians will not be
successful because the GERD is more than 60%
complete and no abortion could be performed at the
end of the second trimester and beginning of the
third trimester unless mindless physicians are
involved and carry on the abortion process to the
destruction of the fetus and detriment of the
mother.
Why the Egyptians worry so much is beyond me when
in fact Egypt will continue to enjoy abundant
water despite the construction of the GERD. During
the heavy rainy season in Ethiopia (i.e. June,
July, and August) the Nile valley in Egypt is
inundated with water and creates enormous damage
to the farming areas, and the GERD, by default,
will actually enable Egyptian farmers to control
the flow of the Nile and successfully maintain
their farming plots, very much like the Tekezze
Dam that enabled Sudanese farmers to control the
flow of the river and harvest more yield of crops
from their respective farms on the Atbara site. In
this context, thus, Hany Hamroush’s claim is
irrelevant. Hamroush, a professor of geology and
geochemistry at American University in Cairo says,
“It is alarming how much information is missing
about the dam. There has to be a complete
transparency and honesty and full professional
data to make sure that the dam will be safe.”3
In
the said USA Today story, it is stated that
“Ethiopia’s dam could drop the Nile’s levels
by 25%”, but there is no credible evidence to
support this statement, and Professor Hamroush’s
claim of the lack of information and data is
neither plausible nor convincing, because the
Egyptians are aware of the hard fact that the GERD
is 500 ft tall, will generate 6450 megawatts in a
74 billion cubic water, and will also form a new
artificial lake stretching 250 km backwards from
the dam. On top of this, what may not be relevant
to Egypt but of great vested interest for Ethiopia
is the fact that the GERD has created 12,000 jobs
for Ethiopians and this is in anticipation of the
Dam’s enormous contribution to growth and
transformation as well as agricultural and
industrial development in Ethiopia.
On
top of the above facts, Ethiopia has reassured
Egypt that the main purpose of the GERD is
hydropower production, but despite this
reassurance, Ahemd Abdul Zeid, spokesman for the
Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as quoted in
the USA Today piece, said, “Egypt’s water
security is non-negotiable; it is considered a red
line that no one can approach.”4
This
kind of rhetoric and condescending remark,
however, will be counterproductive, and if Egypt
does not negotiate with Ethiopia, the government
in Addis Ababa could isolate Egypt through its
diplomatic muscles in the African Union and
through its efforts in strengthening the Agreement
of the Riparian States, although to my surprise
and disappointment Ethiopia is not making enough
dialogue with the Riparian group. Ethiopia is
lagging behind in the renewal and strengthening of
relations with the Riparian states; in this regard
and astonishingly, I have no words to explicitly
explain why Ethiopia wants to negotiate with Egypt
only when the latter, on the contrary, negates all
negotiation efforts. Ethiopia is well advised to
initiate a new approach with the Riparian states
and Ethiopian policymakers might as well have a
glance at an article entitled “Time to think
about Ethiopia’s Post-GERD Nile Policy”5 that
was posted on IDEA’s website a while ago.
Finally,
beyond its utility function, it should be known
that the GERD is a continuation of the great
edifices constructed by ancient and medieval
Ethiopian civilizations, and once completed and
begins its operations, it will observe annual
renaissances for succeeding generations of
Ethiopians. Above all, the GERD, will become a
grand symbol of the rebirth of a nation and a
country determined to uplift itself for the sole
purpose of defeating and eliminating poverty,
illiteracy, and all social ills associated with
backwardness, and pave a way for economic
transformation and prosperity. Moreover, the GERD
will signify the rugged self-direction and sense
of independence of the Ethiopian people because it
is one grand project that is under construction
without any aid extended from global donors.
Notes:
1.
Ghelawdewos
Araia, “Egypt has no Choice but to Cooperate
with Ethiopia on the Issue of the Nile,” www.africanidea.org/Egypt_has_no_choice.html
June
12, 2013
2.
Ghelawdewos
Araia, “The Historic Ethiopian-Egyptian Renewed
Diplomacy and Cooperation,”
January 12, 2015 www.africanidea.org/Historic_Ethiopian_Egyptian_diplomacy.html
3.
Jacob
Wirtschaffer, “Here is Egypt’s Nile River is
in Danger,” special for USA Today, September 29,
2017
4.
Jacob
Wirtschaffer, USA Today, Ibid
5.
Fasil
Amdetsion, “Time to think about Ethiopia’s
Post-GERD Nile Policy”, www.africanidea.org/Nile_Coop-Waters.pdf
All Rights Reserved, Copyright ©
Institute of Development and Education for Africa
(IDEA), for educational and constructive feedback,
please contact Dr. Ghelawdewos Araia via dr.garaia@africanidea.org
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