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The
Historic Ethiopian-Egyptian Renewed Diplomacy and
Cooperation
Ghelawdewos
Araia, PhD
January 12, 2015
I
am gratified to witness the renewed
Ethiopian-Egyptian diplomacy and cooperation after
much turbulence, mistrust, and bellicose political
climate that have griped the two African nations
for decades. To be sure, it was Egypt that had
promoted animus
belligerendi (a near war attitude) against
Ethiopia since the days of Emperor Haile Selassie.
Now, thanks to the wise leadership of President
Field Marshall Abdel Fatah el-Sisi and the
pragmatic vision of the Egyptian people, Egypt has
completely reversed its old policy and enhanced a
friendly foreign policy toward Ethiopia. Ethiopia,
on the other hand, had advanced a more
conciliatory and compromise
d’arbitrage (resolving disputes peacefully)
policy toward Egypt, but finally, so it looks, the
Ethiopian patience paid off.
Back
in 2001, I personally was hopeful that Egypt and
Ethiopia were going to resolve their differences
on the Nile issue amicably based on the initiative
taken by the Eastern Nile Council of Ministers,
and because sometimes reality takes on the quality
of self-fulfilling prophecy, I had then ventured
on analyzing the Ethiopian-Egyptian relation
conundrum as follows:
The
outcome of the Seventh Eastern Nile Council of
Ministers which heralded the news that Ethiopia,
Egypt and Sudan agreed to develop the Nile is a
very encouraging political measure that, in turn,
signals hope to the people of north east Africa.
As Mohammed Zeid, the Egyptian Minister of Water
Resources and Irrigation aptly puts it “the
level of achievement is extraordinarily
satisfactory.” This affirmation by itself is, by
all measure, an indication of the proverbial
“light at the end of the tunnel”. Beyond the
metaphoric “light of hope”, however, it is the
raw material now laid down by Ethiopia, Egypt, and
Sudan, which clearly exhibit a development
consortium that would at once resolve the tensions
between these countries and furthermore link them
together in a peaceful human endeavor for a common
agenda. …The three countries had already
invested in the precursor of the Eastern Nile
Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) to cooperate on
irrigation, drainage, and hydroelectric
development. This kind of cooperation and
agreement is, of course, not new to the Sudan and
Egypt; only Ethiopia is a new partner, and because
of its inclusion, the agenda of Nile development
could become more meaningful and effective.1
However,
in the last three years, when constellation of
problems infested the Egyptian-Ethiopian
relations, in large measure due to Ethiopia’s
decision to construct a huge dam on the Nile, all
the hope I garnered in 2001 was dashed and washed
away. As a result of the viscerally disturbing
Mohammed Morse’ s policy against Ethiopia, I was
compelled to incorporate a defensive posture to
the extent of defending Ethiopia’s interests
without damaging Egypt’s inalienable right to
the use of the Nile waters. Thus, in 2013, I wrote
an article entitled “Egypt Has No Choice but
to Cooperate with Ethiopia on the Nile Issue”
and this is how I put it then:
…The
people of Egypt will continue to enjoy the waters
of the Nile in spite of the dam construction
project in Ethiopia…Contrary to opposing the
construction of the Grand Renaissance Dam of
Ethiopia, Egypt is best advised to cooperate with
Ethiopia and support the Nile initiative
Ethiopians have taken to tame and harness the Nile
on their own turf. Moreover, Egypt is advised to
invest and benefit in return rather than venture
on opposing the completion of the Grand
Renaissance. By cooperating with the Government
and people of Ethiopia, Egypt has nothing to lose
but to gain. It is quite obvious that the ultimate
resource of the Nile Water is Ethiopia, because
the Blue Nile (Black Nile as it is known in
Ethiopia) contributes 80 to 90% of the water and
96% of the alluvial soil to the Nile, and the
country that benefits most from the ‘gift of the
Nile’ is Egypt. …Ethiopia, on the other hand,
must reciprocate Egyptian [anticipated]
cooperation by, first and foremost, guaranteeing
the water needs of the Egyptian people.2
In
the above mentioned article and in another article
entitled “Ethiopia Must Complete the
Construction of Gligel Gibe III”3, I
have defended Ethiopia’s right to construct dams
on its own turf and underscored the hundreds of
countries across the globe that built dams, not to
mention the USA that boasts 75 to 80,000 dams
across the nation.
Incidentally,
one of the myriad countries that built dams and
hydroelectric power is Egypt. The first attempt by
Egypt of constructing a dam goes back to 1902,
when the country was still under British rule. The
Aswan High Dam, constructed under the auspices of
the Soviet Union during Gamal Abdel Nasser, “was
expected to have an impact on agriculture in two
ways. The old lands were to be more intensely
cultivated especially in Upper Egypt, allowing the
peasants to earn more by growing more…The second
effect of the dam was to expand Egypt’s
cultivated surface by 16 to 20%, to transfer
substantial numbers of near-landless to the
reclaimed areas, and thereby to increase
agricultural production further.”4
The
Aswan High Dam, locally known as Al Sadd al
‘Ali, was completed in 1970 and began its
operations in the same year. It is 111 meters
high, 3,830 meters-long, and 980 meters wide. On
top of the obvious agricultural and power purposes
of the Dam, as John Waterbury aptly put it, “it
symbolized rationality in resource management,
national sovereignty and strength, and the leading
role of the state in finding technocratic
solutions to Egypt’s socio-economic problems.
All are closely linked together.”5
There
is a striking resemblance between the rationale
behind the construction of the Aswan High Dam and
the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The
latter’s main purpose is to generate hydropower,
sell electricity to neighboring countries and
allocate the money to alleviating poverty as well
as realizing development projects. Admittedly,
however, Ethiopians in general and the Government
in particular have tacitly (an in some instances
explicitly) attributed Ethiopian pride and
self-reliance to the GERD. It has now become a
common parlance among Ethiopians that the GERD
should be built by Ethiopians, both in terms of
labor and finance.
Some
Diaspora Ethiopian commentators have wrongly
assumed that Ethiopia has already incurred a huge
debt in financing the construction of the
Renaissance Dam. The fact of the matter is that no
country or international financial institution has
extended financial help (grant or loan) to
Ethiopia, except for China. The total allotted
budget for the construction of the Dam is $4.8
billion and while Chinese banks have offered $1.8
billion, the remainder $3 billion will be financed
by Ethiopians (via bonds and private funds), which
by the way is only 10-15% of the total $42 billion
current Ethiopian GDP.
When
the general plan of the GERD was laid in March
2011, it was decided to construct it on the
Benishangul-Gumuz Regional State of Western
Ethiopia, a State which is contiguous with Sudan.
It was also decided that the general structural
features of the Dam, when completed, to be 170
meters tall, 1,800 meters long, and will have two
power houses, each with 8X350 MW Francis Turbine
generators. Moreover, a 50 meter high saddle dam
that would reinforce the dam and a three mile long
reservoir.
At
a time when I write this essay, 40% of the Dam’s
construction is complete and by July 2017 it is
expected that the Ethiopian engineers will
announce to the world that they have successfully
completed their job. When Ethiopia heralds the
completion of the GERD in 2017, it is not only
Ethiopians and other African people of the Nile
Riparian states that will celebrate, but also the
people of Egypt (the Misir brothers and sisters)
that will take center stage in the festivity, and
it is for reasons discussed below.
The
recent Ethiopian public diplomacy group sojourn to
Egypt and the joyous welcoming and hospitality it
enjoyed from the Egyptians, tells it all.
According to some of the seventy-strong Ethiopian
public diplomats and their hosting counterparts, a
mutual understanding and reassurance has been
achieved, and both sides seem to agree that
Ethiopia and Egypt have ironed out their
differences on the GERD’s impact on Egypt and
the Egyptians are comfortable and at ease now.
Instead
of concluding with my own interpretation of the
Ethiopian-Egyptian renewed diplomacy and
cooperation, however, I found it more palatable
and meaningful to simply narrate as is the
discourses of the Egyptians and Ethiopians in
their own words.
In
their three-day sojourn, the Ethiopians met
President Abdel Fatah el-Sisi, Prime Minister
Ibrahim Mahleb, His Holiness Patriarch Tewodros
III of the Egyptian Coptic Church, and many
professionals and intellectuals, as well as
writers. In no uncertain terms, Prime Minister
Mahleb told the Ethiopians that the peoples of
Ethiopia and Egypt are interconnected by history.
The Ethiopian parliament spokesman Aba Dula Gemeda,
on his part, stated that the Egyptians expressed
their support for Ethiopia’s development
projects and that they very well understood
Ethiopia’s concern of Egyptian water needs.
I
was elated to learn that the Egyptians indeed
said, “Egypt has no choice but to support
Ethiopia’s development programs” and those
were the exact words I entertained in my 2013
article mentioned above. Whether the Egyptians
have now realized the necessity of fostering a
more meaningful relationship with Ethiopia or are
driven by their national interest and wanted to
pursue cooperation with Ethiopia is not of our
concern now. At this juncture, both countries have
forged a more amicable relationship and when this
endeavor is further enhanced, Egypt and Ethiopia
will be the beneficiaries from hitherto unforeseen
productive palate.
His
Holiness Patriarch Tewodros III said, “The Nile
should connect us and not divide us.” The
Ethiopian Muslim cleric and chair of the Ethiopian
Muslim Affairs Council Sheik Kiyar Mohammed Aman
pointedly stated, “We have brought with us love
and cooperation and we will not reduce a drop of
water to Egypt.” Mohammed Derar, the Ethiopian
Ambassador to Egypt, reiterated the Egyptian
positive remarks and distinctly underscored the
meeting of the Ethiopians with top Egyptian
political, religious, and civic leaders.
A
member of the Ethiopian delegation, Weizero Mulu
Solomon, categorically addressed the Egyptian
audience by saying, “We should not be prisoners
of old ideas; we can change not only Egypt and
Ethiopia, but the entire continent of Africa.”
Ato Amare Aregawi of the Ethiopian Reporter
unambiguously presented the weakness of the media
in promoting an African agenda for African
development. Professor Bahru Zewde also reassured
the Egyptians that construction of the Renaissance
Dam would not negatively affect Egypt, and some of
the Ethiopian delegation including Dr. Aregaw
Yirdaw perceived the joint meeting of the
Ethiopians and Egyptians as one based on “deeply
rooted relationship of the Ethiopian and Egyptian
peoples.”
While
Prince Be’ede-Mariam Mekonnen asserted that
Egypt can actually benefit from the Renaissance
Dam, Ato Girma Seife entertained the legitimate
concern and/or fear of the Egyptians as a result
of GERD major project, although he added, “their
fear is not based on truth.” But of all members
of the Ethiopian delegation, it was Ato Tesfaye
Daba who pointedly and positively said,
“Ethiopia has the right to develop herself, and
the mission that we have brought from Addis Ababa
has been realized.”
Most
of the Egyptian delegation, including Foreign
Minister Semih Shukri has unequivocally supported
the Ethiopian development agenda and the
construction of the GERD. One of the Egyptian
delegation in fact, said, “When we go to
Ethiopia, we feel that we are going to our second
country.” Members of the Egyptian Writers
Association, also present in the meeting, were by
far candid and frank in their presentations. One
lady distinctly and honestly asserted, “We
[Egyptians] drink water that comes from Ethiopia,
but we don’t know much about Ethiopia; I myself
have not read a single book on Ethiopia.” And
Mohammed Idris addressed the Ethiopians with
gesture and sincere tone: “You Ethiopians have a
national pride; we need your support.”
One
tangible and promising achievement attainted in
the renewed relationship and cooperation of the
two nations is the formation of the
Ethiopian-Egyptian Business Council, which I
believe is going to serve as a solid cornerstone
for future Egyptian-Ethiopian relations and
synergy of development programs of the two
nations. In the final analysis, Ethiopia and Egypt
that are the pride of civilization of antiquity of
Africa should indeed be the potential
leaders of the continent, and as I have argued
elsewhere in my previous works, Egypt in the
North, Ethiopia in the East, South Africa in the
South, and Nigeria in the West should play a major
pan-African development agenda that could in
actual fact unite Africa.
Notes
1Ghelawdewos
Araia, “Development Consortium of the Nile is
the Way to Go”, East
African Forum, February 13, 2001. Also view
“Egyptian Blooper: Politicians, unaware they are
in air, threaten Ethiopia” video clip on www.africanidea.org
2Ghelawdewos
Araia, “Egypt Has No Choice but to Cooperate
with Ethiopia on the Nile Issue”, www.africandiea.org/Egypt_has_no_choice.html
June 13, 2013
3See
“Ethiopia Must Complete the Construction of
Gilgel Gebe III” www.africanidea.org/Gilgel_Gibe_111.html
4John
Waterbury, The Egypt of Nasser and Sadat: The Political Economy of Two Regimes,
Princeton University Press, 1983, p. 87
5John
Waterbury, Ibid, p. 64
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