Incumbent
vs Challenger: Who Would have an Advantage in Tigray’s Election?
Asayehgn
Desta, Sarlo Distinguished Professor, Dominican University of California
After
the “National Electoral Board of Ethiopia abandoned vote preparations in
March due to the Arrival of COVID-19” (International Crisis Group,
August 14, 2020), embracing their constitutional rights, the
Administrative State Council of Tigray expressed its desire to run
polls’ election and scheduled it for September, 9, 2020 -- instead of
waiting for a year until after the World Health Organization (WHO) would
hopefully confirm the end of the pandemic coronavirus pandemic.
Consequentially,
the Regional Council of Tigray has emphatically urged political parties
and individuals to participate in the election process to broaden the
political space in Tigray. To accommodate and amplify the voices of
disenfranchised and marginalized parties, the Regional Council has broken
TPLF’s mono-party and is in the process of forming a mixed-type
electoral system. A
mixed electoral system combines “first- past-the post” (FPTP, where
candidates with the most votes take all electoral votes) with elements of
the Proportional Representation (PR, an electoral process that ritualizes
the principle of equal representation of all parties in the election
process).
Stated
differently, Tigray’s Electoral Commission has now empowered the newly
emerging political parties in Tigray to set their foot in the doorsteps of
the Administrative Regional Council and have meaningful opportunities to
exercise their rights. To achieve this, it is formally combing 80 percent
(152 seats) of the candidates elected via FPTP with 20 percent (38 seats)
of the marginalized political groups to be elected via PR electoral
system.
Tentatively
observed, the electoral framework that has been initiated by the Electoral
Council seems not only shade democratic lights but also is framed within
the legal self-rule rights-- Article 39 of the 1995 Ethiopian
Constitution. More than ever, the people of Tigray (Tagarus) have
tightened their belts and are consciously ready to stand against any
range of punitive measures (such as- budgetary, economic and military
action) that the Abiy’s Government has been contemplating to disrupt the
Regional Administrative of Tigray from holding the vote on schedule.
Despite
the deadly COVID-19 pandemic-induced complications, more than 2.75 million
voters in Tigray are now registered and have indicated that they are
committed to cast their ballots on September 9, 2020.
Leaving
aside Abiy’s hyperbole, the most important glaring issue that seems to
manifest in Tigray is that the electorate feel that the mixed electoral
system is lopsided. More particularly, the newly formed Political
Parties-- Asembia, Batonya,
Nasanet Tigray and Salsie Weyena-- feel that the mixed
electoral system seems to be tailored to give an advantage to the Tigray
People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). In
addition to the designed electoral process,
the different political parties feel that TPLF has an added
advantage because it:
1) has an accolade for being the liberator of the whole country
from seventeen years of military dictatorship; 2) has remained as an
incumbent political party in Tigray for more thirty years; 3) has full
control over the apparatus of the State; and 4) could give an impression
to the electorate that it is the only party that has the necessary
experience to forcefully deter the various threats the Abiy’s controlled
Central Government is anticipated to unleash on Tigray.
As
noted above, instead of designing the electoral process in Tigray to favor
multiple parties, it is a mixed-party system. That is, while 20 percent of
the seats in the Regional Council are subject to be determined by the more
democratic Proportional Representation system, the remaining 80 percent
have been bestowed to the cadre-based TPLF Party. Given this electoral
process, it could be argued that the entrenched TPLF Party is
automatically given the majority of the votes within the 38
constituencies.
On
the one hand, it can be argued that the newly engineered electoral process
has enabled the Tagarus to be active participants rather than
remaining spectators as before. For
example, as observed in the debating process, I feel that Tigray should be
proud of its young politicians. If given the chance, all political parties
represented in the debating process seem to be ready to acquire and
exercise political power. In contrast to the last five elections that
implicitly required -- that candidates need to be cadres, embracing and
espousing the ideology of the TPLF Party, the other political party
candidates have tried to put the incumbent TPLF Party on defense. With
limited campaign experience, the political challengers demonstrated have
demonstrated a high level of motivation and readiness to challenge the
TPLF Party on a number of social issues.
As
the political process is unfolding, the political parties in Tigray need
to undertake grassroots campaign that are loaded with consistent and
understandable messages. To offer their visions for the future, the
political parties need to frame forward their aspirational road map (the
vision and mission) of their parties. While galvanizing their political
campaigning, the political parties needs to map out the missions (such as:
vibrant economy, rural quality of life, sense of community, etc.)
and also need to have tailor-made
strategies for meeting needs, for example solving the health,
water, and educational
problems of their communities.
As
defenders of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front
(EPRDF), as observed on television, the entrenched incumbent TPLF Party
has seemed to align its plan in concordance with EPRDF’s Developmental
State model. In
short, it has strongly argued that State-led intervention, rather than
relying on the uncoordinated influence of market forces is necessary to
allocate economic resources. Given this, -- the TPLF Party has advocated
that Tigray will remain vibrant if its economy is tailored to fulfill the
development-oriented paradigm. By practicing the Developmental State
model, the representative of TPLF Party further pointed-out that Tigray
has already achieved a better way of life and it has been operating in a
democratic process that encourages accountability, transparency, and the
participation of the Tigarus in policy-making.
Though
very lofty and is very parochial, the Nasanet Tigray (Tigray
Independent Party) overwhelmingly rested its position on a very
hypothetical note. It
strongly argued that the people of Tigray need to be set free from
Ethiopia. In other words, the Tigray Independent Party has argued
that Tigray could be rebuilt to look like the prosperous and mighty
Axum Empire of the past, provided it is set free from the shackles of
Ethiopia’s domination that it is facing currently.
From
the debates in which they participated, the proponents of the Asimba
Party did not attempt to articulate the vision and missions of their
party. However, in between the lines, one gets the impression that the Asimba
Party is typically-- geographical-oriented.
Thus, the Asimba Party should not be outrightly dismissed. It is
most likely positioned to get votes within its geographical location.
As
the former members of the Ariena Party, the Baitona and Salesi
Wayene Parties seem to reflect remarkably similar ideas. Stated
briefly, they focused on building mass-based political movements in order
to foment and evolve grassroot movements. However, assuming that the Baitona’s
Party had developed their book to rebuilding a populist social movement,
their idea of empowering Tagarus en masse by focusing on
people-oriented development could definitely entice many followers.
Due
to the pandemic virus, COVID-19, it is incredibly challenging to run an
effective political campaigns, clearly articulating messages to the
electorate or registered voters. For example, in rural Tigray, the
political challengers will face difficulty establishing grassroots
campaigns that are necessary for clout, visibility, and influence. Similarly,
some of the health-related restraining activities imposed by the State,
such as, shutting down in-person campaigning, restrictions on meeting with
candidates, and curtailment of door-to-door canvassing could make establishing
--
political campaigns difficult in urban Tigray areas.
There
is no doubt that the spread of COVID-19 could cause impenetrable hurdles
to effectively campaign in Tigray. Nonetheless, it needs to be underlined
that when compared with the other challengers, the TPLF is in a better
position. As an entrenched incumbent, the TPLF can entice more turnouts
because it can establish contact through the administrative apparatus of
the State. As criticized by challengers, by promising kickbacks, the TPLF
Party can unfairly entice voters.
Despite
possible projections that the incumbent TPLF Party might have a strong
chance to win the majority of the seats in the Regional Council, one thing
is quite clear --instead of one party, currently, five political parties
(TPLF, Asembia, Batonya,
Nasanet Tigray and Salsie Weyena) are participating in
Tigray’s electoral process. Thus, in defiance to the cart blanche
that was freely given by Prime Minister Abiye to governors and members of
the Regional Council of Tigray that they could easily extend their power
by using the pandemic, more than 2.75 million Tagarus have decided
to go the polls on September 9, 2020, respecting their inalienable rights
to vote for their next representatives in Tigray’s Electoral
Council. Therefore, despite challenges, the lessons that we can learn from
the electoral process in Tigray is that the sown seeds of the core
institutions of democracy are highly likely to blossom in Ethiopia.
References:
International Crisis Group (14 August 2020).
“Toward an End to Ethiopia’s Federal-Tigray Feud.” Briefing,
160/Africa. Accessed at https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/ethiopia/b160-toward-end-ethiopias-federal-tigray-feud
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