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Is
Ethiopia Heading Toward a One Man-Show Politics or
One Party Dictatorship?
Ghelawdewos
Araia, PhD
September 22, 2019
This
brief article will candidly and critically address
the present complex and complicated Ethiopian
politics and systematically analyze the political
trend of paving the way for the establishment of
an oligarchy that would govern beyond the
legislature and constitutional order.
A
year and half ago, Ethiopia, under the leadership
of Dr. Abiy Ahmed, was in a festive mood of
celebrating the emergence of new hope and new
promises of democratic governance and freedom in
the country. In fact, back in July 2019, I argued
as follows: “When PM Abiy assumed power, the
Ethiopian people welcomed him and embraced his
bright and promising administrative and political
policies, including open political debates and
reforms aimed at restructuring the government;
some of the significant steps taken by Abiy Ahmed
are his newly constituted cabinet of ministers
composed of ten women and ten men; above all, he
appointed a woman president, first female
president in recent Ethiopian history, although
Ethiopia had many women head of states from Queen
Saba to Queen Zewditu.”1
Contrary
to the promises of the PM and bright hope of
Ethiopians, however, in no time and under the
watchful eyes of the present government, Ethiopia
encountered political mess and instability
unparalleled in its modern history. Millions of
Ethiopians were displaced from their turf,
hundreds upon hundreds killed and their property
looted and burned down. The political discomfort
and chaos that Ethiopians have encountered now is
a result of EPRDF’s nature and characteristics
that effectively muzzled democracy, although the
EPRDF also scored major success in foundational
economy and maintaining peace and order for two
and half decades; Abiy and his regime are
byproducts of the EPRDF and could not be solely
blamed for all Ethiopia’s problems, but they
will shoulder a big chunk for the cause of the
political mess. On top of this chaos, the
Ethiopian economic growth has dropped from 10-11%
growth per annum during the heyday of Growth and
Transformation Plans to 7.7% and below after PM
Abiy assumed power, and now that the major
foundational projects are either delayed or
halted, further economic crisis has bedeviled the
Ethiopian nation-state.
As
stated in the above paragraph, Abiy Ahmed, after
all, is the brainchild of the EPRDF, but his
recent anti-EPRDF tendencies and practices could
perhaps make him the step-child of his own party,
whose alien father deliberately abandoned him to
find his way up in the hierarchy ladder of the
EPRDF. In other words, as already clearly put
above, it is the rigid and corrupt bureaucracy of
the EPRDF and its undemocratic political culture
that created Abiy Ahmed and the plethora of other
officials that have now betrayed their own
comrades and are pretending as change agents.
Some
Ethiopian observers like Finian Cunningham, early
on, that is when the Abiy regime was installed,
have detected political and economic problems that
could grip Ethiopia as a result of losing its
sovereignty and becoming dependent on foreigners
in the construction of the Great Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD) that was solely initiated
by Ethiopians and financed by Ethiopians.
Cunningham states, “…for Ethiopia which stands
alone as the one African nation historically not
colonized by foreign powers, such proud history of
independence could be soon lost.” The author
further tells us that “the new prime minister
has embraced Washington’s Arab allies in the
region, in particular Egypt, Saudi Arabia and
United Arab Emirates.” “The nation [Ethiopia],
which was seen up to now as an African role model
for independent development, is being shifted from
its erstwhile independence and partnership with
China to become a client of Western capital and
Washington’s regional allies among the Arab
states.”2
Finian
Cunnigham was mainly concerned in the breaking of
the GERD and subsequently burdening Ethiopians
with Western debts, and he quotes former World
Bank economist Peter Koening, who argued, “This
will lead to debt slavery. All money from
Western-controlled financial institutions like the
World Bank and International Monetary Fund is to
be avoided at all cost. Their lending of money is
simply a cynical way for Western capital to gain
control over national economies.”3
In
one recent conference in Addis Ababa, the Prime
Minster ensured the audience who were concerned by
the delay of the construction of the GERD, by
saying “We will finish constructing the Dam.”
Given the current double standard in Ethiopian
politics, however, it is impossible to trust the
political leaders on the Government side and the
so-called opposition party leaders in regards to
accomplishing the delayed and postponed projects.
Unfortunately the deliberate reversal of the
foundational economy under the guise of
privatization is against all powers of reason and
history, but it is beyond the scope of this
Article to discuss the Ethiopian economy in depth
and in some length.
Now,
the present regime claims that it is undertaking
reforms aimed at restructuring the political
economy of Ethiopia, but the contradiction is
abundantly clear when the regime itself is
unwilling to stop disturbances and outlaw brigand
operations; the Ethiopian people, in particular
merchants, are still being attacked by the armed
brigands. Moreover, the recent ambush of Ethiopian
defense forces convey at Metema (Western Gondar in
the Amhara Region) is very suspicious and
tantamount to conspiracy and not simply to a
brigand operation.
And for whatever complicated incidents
taking place in Ethiopia, the government does not
make public statements via its media, and as a
result the people have become increasingly
despondent and lost trust on the status quo
altogether.
So
many other suspicious incidents have also taken
place since the ascendance to power of PM Abiy
Ahmed, some of which are the assassination of
Chief of Staff General Seare Mekonnen, Major
General Geza’e Aberra, and Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen
on June 15, 2019; almost a year before, Engineer
Simegnew Bekele, the chief manager of GERD, was
assassinated. The loss of these key figures was
great loss for Ethiopia and has brought
pain-induced grief upon their immediate family
members; sadly, until today the Attorney General
did not reveal of its findings with respect to the
crimes and none of the murders were brought before
the court of law. For all other prior incidents
that are analogous but not necessarily identical
are the burning of Ethiopian Orthodox churches at
Jigjiga, Kemise, and Hawasa and the many ethnic
conflicts and internal displacements, the
Government was unresponsive. As a result of this
incredulous uncommitted or fence-setting attitude
of the Government, the Ethiopian people live now
in hopelessness, inexplicable fear, and diffidence
as well as timidity.
Unfortunately,
for all intents and purposes, the so-called Reform
is now derailed and the re-emergence of open
political debate and civil dialogue could
altogether vanish. The government, it looks, is
more interested in populist agendas of gathering
people and promising all the good wishes as it
happened in Bonga, Kaffa just few days ago and
when the PM called the people of Tigray, “you
are golden” a year ago. The populist narratives,
however, are contradicted by the “day-time
hyenas” rhetoric and the attempt to isolate the
Tigray Regional State from the Ethiopian body
politic. It may not be clear whether this is a
reflection of a paradox of mental vision or
involuntarily releasing the hidden true self like
a deflating balloon, but what is quite astounding
is the regime’s immersion in self-perpetuating
cycle of dysfunction, which is manifested
sometimes with some shocking revelations. At any
rate, whatever interpretation we give to the
promises made in a public square, the lofty
statements are mechanisms of distraction from the
more pressing problems that Ethiopia has
encountered now.
If
the overall political trend is left unchecked, and
it seems it would not be counterchecked in the
face of a muzzled parliament and a faltering and
disappearing EPRDF, Ethiopia will be heading
toward a one man-show and one party dictatorship.
The regime could be heading toward a Hobbesian
Leviathan type of absolute dictatorship,
leveraging on the ‘state of nature’, the chaos
that has afflicted much of the Ethiopian political
landscape; the chaos itself could turn into a
deluge and even drown the political regime.
However, in the event that the regime somehow
survives on top of the flood under the bridge, it
could consolidate by employing coercion and
violent measures against any opposing force.
The
formation of a one-party system would not be
surprising, because, after all and as indicated
above, the fertile ground for this phenomenon was
already laid down by the EPRDF. Writing on the
Ethiopian election of 2010, Kjetil Tronvoll, had
the following to say: “The general impression
among Ethiopians was that the outcome was a
foregone conclusion, so the electorate was rather
passively, or perhaps reluctantly, following the
campaign and election discourse. The only
excitement was related to how overwhelmingly the
incumbent Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF) would win; the general
guesstimate was that the huge opposition gains in
the 2005 elections, giving them one-third of the
seats in the House of Representatives, would be
pushed back in order for EPRDF to secure a solid
victory of between 75-85 per cent of the seats. It
thus raised some eyebrows both domestically and
internationally when the National Election Board
of Ethiopia (NEBE) declared the EPRDF had secured
99.6 percent of the seats in the Parliament –
all but two, one going to the opposition and one
to an EPRDF-friendly independent candidate.”4
Five
years after Tronvoll wrote his article, in the
2015 election, there was no such thing as “all
but two” because the NEBE declared the EPRDF as
the sole winner and the latter claimed that it won
all seats in the parliament; this unique but
strange phenomenon in electoral politics is the
main factor, among other elements, that has become
the main reason for a possible one man-show and a
dictatorship in Ethiopian politics. Given this
reality on the ground, thus, it is highly probable
that the May 2020 election may be postponed
indefinitely and may never be conducted; the
regime in power, led by Dr. Abiy Ahmed may
altogether resort to shutting down the parliament
and dissolving it, and declare the constitution
null and void. I say this in the context of the
present modus operandi of the Government outside
the Constitution. A good example of decisions and
operations made outside the parameters of the
constitution is the case of Sidama quest for
self-determination that ended up in disaster5,
but the point I like to make here is that the
Sidama question was handled by the National
Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), when in fact it
was supposed to be facilitated by the House of
Federation in accordance with Article 47, Numbers
2 and 3.
If,
on the other hand, the government respects the
Constitution, the Prime Minister is entitled to
dissolve the parliament with the consent of the
House (Article 60, Number 1), but this action may
not be followed as standard procedure given the
current trend of operating outside the
Constitution as already mentioned above. What is
then going to be the fate of Ethiopia? Is Abiy
Ahmed going to create a new alliance with parties
of similar mission and objectives by completely
abandoning the EPRDF, “his own” party? Or,
could the Prime Minister be challenged by the
Federalist Forces that want to “save” (their
own words) the present federal structure and the
Constitution with some amendments? Could there be
armed confrontations between the
unitary-cum-centrist apologist forces and the
federalist devolutionist forces? Anything is
possible.
I
am of the opinion that both centrist and
federalist forces avoid confrontation and hold
rather a conference of national reconciliation and
dialogue for the sake of peace and development and
the welfare of the Ethiopian people. If real
politic is emphasized and the two forces are
interested in power politics, however, zero-sum
politics accompanied by violent bloodshed could
inundate Ethiopia. If the Prime Minister is really
interested in Ethiopian unity (and that is the
leitmotif in all his speeches), he should play the
role of an arbiter and a uniting leader between
the two forces. A leader of a nation can entertain
his/her own political stand and embrace any
ideology, but s/he cannot and should not take
sides in the event the two forces quarrel.
Nevertheless, the latter proposal is more of a
wish than a plausible and possible accomplishment
if viewed against the present ethnocentric
politics and the shackles of sectarian outlook
that has infested the Ethiopian political
landscape for nearly three decades.
Finally,
I would not mind sending a candid message to Dr.
Abiy Ahmed in an effort not to appease the Prime
Minister but to contribute to the sanity of the
Ethiopian political culture. It is a similar
message that I conveyed during my interview with
the Tigray Media House (TMH) back in July, 2019. I
said then that Dr. Abiy would be better-off in
holding ties with his own party, the EPRDF and
continue to uphold the Constitution and maintain
the federal structure. Now, that Abiy Ahmed
declared that “the EPRDF would not be able to
continue as is” and keeps ignoring the
constitution, and his overall decisions are
centrist rather than abiding by the federal rules
in the context of respecting the voices and
self-determination of the Regional States, my old
advice would become meaningless. But, I still hope
that the government would maintain peace and
order; revive the stalled development projects,
and opens up a new era of democracy for Ethiopia.
I say to Dr. Abiy accomplish the minimum so that
you live in history and history always suggests
caution and provides exemplary anecdotes; learn
from it!
Notes:
1.
Ghelawdewos
Araia, “Sinkhole Politics Ethiopian Style: The
Breakdown of Law and Order and the Assassination
of General Seare Mekonnen, Major-General Gezae
Aberra and Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen”, www.africanidea.org/Sinkhole_Politics_Ethiopian_style.html June
27, 2019
2.
Finian
Cunningham, “Ethiopia, Breaking the Dam for
Western Debt Slavery,” Strategic Culture,
September 2, 2018
3.
Peter
Koeing in Finian Cunningham, Ibid
4.
Kjetil
Tronvoll, “The Ethiopian 2010 Federal and
Regional Elections: Re-establishing the One-Party
State”, African
Affairs, Oxford University Press, November 26,
2010
5.
See
Ghelawdewos Araia, “The Sidama People’s
Self-Determination vis-à-vis the Ethiopian
Constitution”, www.africanidea.org/Sidama_self_determination.html
July 18,
2019
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