IDEA Editorial
January
4, 2008
The
Obama Factor and American Electoral Politics
Barak Obama,
the only African American democrat running for the
office of the U. S. presidency, has won the Iowa
caucuses. What makes the Obama factor different
from previous African Americans (like Jesse
Jackson) running for the same office is, the
significant White support and endorsement that
Barak has enjoyed, unique to American electoral
politics and perhaps first of its kind in U. S.
history. It is astounding Obama to have won the
Iowa caucuses because the state of Iowa is
essentially rural with 93 percent of its
population White and only 4 percent Black. Two
important factors that need to be considered in
this preliminary electoral processes are, 1)
American psychology ready for change; and 2) the
Obama factor that has clearly attracted the youth,
women, the middle class, and the working class
across the board. On top of these, Americans are
fed up of eight years of Republican governance,
accompanied by failures in domestic and foreign
policy matters; middle class America (the majority
of the population) is directly affected by the
constant inflation, near recession economy and the
egregious blunder in the Iraq war perpetrated by
the Bush Administration.
It is not
surprising thus, that Americans are ready for
change but whether America is ready for an
African-American president remains to be seen.
Iowa may have signaled that it is not ready for a
woman president (the majority of women in Iowa
voted for Obama) and seems to favor a Black
president. However, though the Obama factor may
still resonate in New Hampshire, Nevada, Florida,
South Carolina, and Maine in the next few weeks,
the Iowa decision may or may not be replicated in
all these states. To be sure, New Hampshire, which
is next to Iowa in American electoral politics,
traditionally voted against Iowan initiative,
unless this time the Obama factor grips the
changing mood in New Hampshire as well.
The Obama
factor is contagious, and most U. S. states may
find this only black candidate appealing, but the
majority of Americans, this time (so it looks) are
not after ones racial and/or religious background
although the latter have always been important in
American electoral politics. In point of fact, it
is not just one African-American, but also one
woman, one Mormon, one Evangelist, one
Mexican-American in the race for the White House.
Above these seemingly important factors, however,
issues pertaining to the domestic economy, health,
and Iraq will dominate the 2008 electoral process.
Obama,
therefore, may continue to be a charismatic
persona representing hope and change, but in the
end it is the Electoral College, and not the
popular vote, that would decide the selection of
the would president of the United States of
America. To begin with, the Democratic Party,
Obama�s own party, out of fear losing to the
Republican Party, may not chose Obama as its
candidate in its forthcoming convention.
The Obama
factor may gather momentum and unleash its forces
against the so-called establishment (in one form
or another, all in the race for the presidency
belong to the establishment), but that could be an
exercise in futility unless the 2008 electoral
process proves us wrong. We wish to be wrong!
On behalf of
IDEA, Inc.
Ghelawdewos
Araia
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