Sinkhole Politics Ethiopian
Style: The Breakdown of Law and Order and the
Assassination of General Seare Mekonnen, Major
General Gezae Aberra and Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen
Ghelawdewos Araia, PhD
June 27, 2019
The assassination of Chief of
Staff General Seare Mekonnen, Major General Gezae
Aberra, and Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen has shaken the
very foundation of the larger Ethiopian society
and has thrown Ethiopians into disbelief and
incredulous puzzlement. The people are asking, who
are the criminals behind the assassination plots?
How can two dramatic murder stories occur at Bahir
Dar and Addis Ababa at the same time?
At a time when the Government
and its attendant media were not able (or
unwilling) to provide the truth about the
assassinations, Ethiopians were forced to resort
to innuendo and gossip-like stories, some
persuasive and others unconvincing; and in due
course of the chaos, one relatively credible
letter appeared on the social media; it emphasized
the conspiracy of the plot vis-à-vis internal and
external actors, although it also acknowledged the
instrumentality of Brigadier General Asaminew
Tsige in the murder of the Amhara Regional State
leaders, and to further complicate matters, the
perpetrator was also killed by government forces.
Other commentators argued that the killing of Dr.
Ambachew and his colleagues was a smokescreen to
gloss over the assassination of Chief of Staff
General Seare Mekonnen and Major General Gezae
Aberra, which, according to some observers, was
planned ahead of time. Yet, some sources say,
major General Gezae was not the target but because
he went to Seare’s house for a chat over tea, he
too was murdered along with the Chief of Staff,
the main target.
Initially, the media announced
that the murderer of Seare and Gezae was the body
guard of the Chief of Staff, who right away killed
himself, but soon after the story changed and the
media announced that the culprit was wounded,
captured, and was in a hospital (the murder’s
identity and the hospital where he was getting
medical attention were not disclosed); not
disclosing name and place is understandable in
light of the seriousness of intelligence-related
matters, but the incredible enigma is the identity
of the people who shot and wounded the murderer!
Who are they?
In the midst of all these
confusions and innuendos, I personally would not
venture to make a preliminary judgment. The aim of
this paper, in fact, is to provide explanatory
notes as its tile suggests; and I am of the
opinion that we must wait longer to figure out the
real nature of the murder story. For instance,
when the writing of this piece was in progress,
the Government announced that the person behind
the assassinations is Brigadier General Asaminew,
and it also provided the photo of the murderer
(Sgt. Mesafint Tigabu) who killed Seare and Gezae.
More news may come, and we must refrain from
indulging in transmitting and promoting false
information. However, any sensible person could
inquire in regards to what exactly happened at
General Seare house on June 22, 2019; when the
Generals were shot and killed? Was the so-called
Mesafint by himself or there were other people
behind him who coordinated and participated in the
killing? On that accursed day, the US Embassy in
Addis Ababa announced that there were sporadic
shots around the city. Were the gun shots mere
coincidences or part of the general performance to
hoodwink and distract the attention of Addis Ababa
residents in general and Seare’s neighborhood in
particular?
Immediately after the plot was
staged at Bahir Dar and Addis Ababa, the
Government media described the incident as a coup
d’etat, an explanation that does not make sense
in political science terminology. The term coup
d’etat, etymologically French but adopted in
English, actually means ‘stroke of the national
government’ and does not as such apply to a plot
against a regional state. The best explanation for
the plot would have been ‘conspiracy and
political assassination in order to further
undermine Ethiopian unity’ or ‘to eliminate
top government officials who are perceived as
threat to the central government’. The purpose
and real intent of the conspiracy has yet to be
determined! Or, as in many similar cases,
including those of Hayelom Araya, Meles Zenawi,
and Engineer Simegnew Bekele, we may never know
the cause of the respective deaths.
I personally analogize the
murder of Chief of Staff Seare Mekonnen, Major
General Gezae Aberra, and Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen
and his colleagues to the culmination of the
breakdown of law and order in Ethiopia. In the
last year and half, i.e. with the ascendance of a
new regime led by PM Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia has
encountered violation of the Constitution and
absence of rule of law, followed by instability
and internal displacement of 2.4 million
Ethiopians. This disruptive phenomenon is unheard
of in Ethiopian history, and it is simply
unfathomable why the government was unable to
maintain peace and order, when, ironically, it has
a strong federal police and formidable defense
forces at its disposal.
Contrary to my analysis and
observation of current Ethiopian politics, some
non-Ethiopian observers were of the opinion that
in order for Abiy to lead and administer the
country, he needs to get rid of “TPLF Generals
in the army”. One such observer is Bronwyn
Bruton who contributed an article to Foreign
Policy on July 2018. Her piece is entitled
“Ethiopia and Eritrea have a common enemy”,
and the common enemy apparently is the TPLF. What
I found intriguing in her analysis (or advice-like
opinion) is the fact that it is relevant to my
present article. She stated, “Abiy Ahmed and
Isaias Afwerki are racing toward peace because
they both face the same threat: hard-liners in the
Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front…Abiy has
started to thin their ranks forcing the
resignation of notorious generals and officials…
Abiy has already completed the easy part of this
task. He has fired many old standard-bearers of
the TPLF…The entire ethos of the Ethiopian army
is based on the mythology of the Tigrayan
liberation who defeated the Derg in 1991 – the
same people who still personally hold most key
security intelligence posts…To consolidate his
power, he [Abiy] needs to fire the worst but
co-opt the rest, and that process could take
years.” For further reading on this incredibly
instructive and policy-related analysis, see https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/07/12/ethiopia-and-eritrea-have-a-common-enemy-abiy
-ahmed-isaias-afwerki-badme-peace-tplf-eprdf/
When I made a cursory reading
of Bronwyn Bruton’s article a year ago, I
interpreted it as a strategy to encircle Tigray
and emasculate the TPLF, “the common enemy of
both Isaias and Abiy” but I also thought that it
would not be easy to simply encircle the Tigrayans
and eliminate the TPLF given their steadfastness
and courage. On the contrary, I reasoned, that the
TPLF actually would enjoy some unforeseen bonus
from the “encirclement” because it would be in
a position to mobilize the people of Tigray, and
that is what exactly happened a year after, and I
now could argue that the encirclement was a
miscalculated move. However, with respect to
“getting rid of TPLF Generals”, Bronwyn was
right, and it looks her prediction came to haunt
the Tigrayans in particular and other Ethiopians
in general on June 22, 2019.
The haunting of Ethiopians was
not a mere reflection of “TPLF Generals” that
were either fired or were forced to resign; it was
rather a deep sorrow associated with the killing
of the Generals, and when the remains of the
victims came to the Millennium Hall for a
farewell, it was clear that the many hundreds of
attendants, including the family of the victims,
were overwhelmed by severe sadness, melancholy,
and gloom. The victims were well respected by
their comrades-in-arms, the Generals and other
speakers who celebrated the life of General Seare
and Major General Gezae; prayers led by the
Patriarch Abuna Mathias was conducted to calm the
shouting and crying audience and also to give
solace to the bereaving family; top government
officials, including the Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed
and Deputy PM Demeke Mekonnen were also present;
like many in the audience Dr. Abiy was sobbing and
weeping; that could be a sign of compunction or a
paradox of mental vision that one day the PM might
share with curious Ethiopians.
When PM Abiy assumed power,
the Ethiopian people welcomed him and embraced his
bright and promising administrative and political
policies, including open political debates and
reforms aimed at restructuring the government;
some of the significant steps taken by Abiy Ahmed
are his newly constituted cabinet of ministers
composed of ten women and ten men; above all, he
appointed a woman president, first female
president in recent Ethiopian history, although
Ethiopia had many women head of state from Queen
Saba to Queen Zewditu.
However, the above promising
reforms were virtually circumvented by what I call
‘sinkhole politics’, a sudden destabilizing
movement that actually undermines the reform
initiative; it is very much like a paradox or by
what we call ‘contradiction-in-terms’. I will
explain this incredibly bizarre behavior of the
current Ethiopian state after I define what
sinkhole politics means. Literally, a sinkhole is
a minor geological formation of a crack on the
ground; the ground is eroded from beneath the
surface. Some symptoms of a sinkhole are tilting
trees, walls and/or fences, as well as foundations
of buildings that slant. With respect to politics,
however, the symptoms are quite different as
discussed below.
The current sinkhole politics
in Ethiopia is a result of the breakdown of law
and order as I have already discussed above; it is
a manifestation of a cultural and political
fragmentation that has been going on for at least
three decades, but the rapid appearance of a
sinkhole Ethiopian style is associated with the
Abiy regime and his style of governance which is
tantamount to resignation and indifference, and as
a result the ‘rule of law’ has become
meaningless both in concept and practice in the
last year or so. This subversion of law and order
has, in turn, been conducive to the local and
narrow-minded politicians and also to armed
brigands reminiscent of 19th century
Ethiopia. The latter groups were engaged on a
killing spree of innocent Ethiopians while
simultaneously looting and burning private
businesses and public property. The brigands are
also actively engaged in blocking main roads that
serve as highways between the regional states, and
by doing so they effectively rendered the federal
government non-existent; and they themselves began
controlling certain territories by mobilizing Ya
Gobez Aleqa (chief of militias). Sometimes, it is
difficult to make distinction between the
self-appointed militias, the regional police, and
the officials of the local governments because the
latter two have, in many instances, chose to be
bystanders instead of acting against the brigands,
and consequently thousands of Ethiopian citizens
were exposed to the violent attacks by militias.
The militia-type brigands (aka
‘special armed forces’ in some areas) could
not have been above the law had it been for a
determined and strong government, but because the
Government exhibited ineptitude and
ineffectiveness, the lawless ‘outlaw gangs’
have greatly contributed to the sinkhole politics.
Moreover, the present government shadowy existence
in Ethiopian affairs gave rise to a major sinkhole
politics and emboldened vicious scoundrels to take
the law into their own hands, and it is not
surprising that Asaminew Tsige and his militia
took a decisive and bloody attack against the
Amhara State leaders
Based on the above analysis,
it should be known that sinkhole politics and the
killing of top officials is, in fact, a result of
wrong policy of inviting Diaspora Ethiopians who
constitute ‘the good, the bad, and the ugly’;
the good are some genuine Ethiopian nationalists
who were forbidden to enter their country (these
are few in number); the bad are sizable in terms
of number and they constitute ex-Derg members; the
ugly are the plentitude of chauvinistic
elements-turned narrow nationalists. The other
wrong policy of the Government is the
indiscriminate release of criminals along the
prisoners of conscience. The releasing of
political prisoners and journalists marks a new
era in Ethiopian history toward establishing a new
democratic society, but inviting ex-Derg fascist
elements who are responsible for the destruction
of Ethiopian intellectuals and youth during the
Red Terror was a huge mistake.
On top of the political
dimension of the breakdown of law and order, the
present sinkhole politics could also derail
worthwhile development projects; some
infrastructural nerves in the foundational
economy, such as the Djibouti-Awash-Hara Gebeya
rail construction are now stalled; the country’s
economic growth has been undercut from 10-11% per
annum to 7-7.7 %
per annum; unemployment has risen
significantly and the cost of living (skyrocketing
prices of goods and services) has virtually
bankrupted the wallet of ordinary Ethiopians;
criminality in major Ethiopian cities has
quadrupled and citizens are terrified.
Despite the many complicated
socio-political problems that Ethiopia has
encountered, however, the sacrifices of Seare,
Gezae, and Ambachew may have brought some
unforeseen blessings or positive results:
1.
The
overwhelming Ethiopian citizens have expressed
their sorrow and anger
2.
Ethiopians
have now begun to realize that power transfer
should be conducted via peaceful and democratic
means, and not by violence and illegal usurpation
of power
3.
Ethiopians
have now felt that they need to iron out their
differences via dialogue, abandon their ethnic
sentiments and unite rather on the overarching
Ethiopian nationhood
4.
Various
sectors of the Ethiopian society, including
religious and civic leaders, as well as
traditional community leaders, have emphasized the
significance of peace and order as precondition to
the very survival of Ethiopia and the continuation
of the development agenda. Members of the
Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church especially have
begun organizing mass prayers in order to deflect
the bad omen that is hovering over Ethiopia.
5.
As
the deputy chief of staff, General Berhanu Jula
aptly put it, “the murder of the Generals [his
comrades-in-arms] and the Amahra State leaders is
meant to break Ethiopian unity and disrupt the
army…but we will shame these criminals and we
will win.” That should be the call for all
Ethiopians if indeed Ethiopia is going to uplift
itself from the current mess.
6.
Despite
the relative erosion of moral and ethical values
in the Ethiopian society, Ethiopians have
exhibited magnanimity by respecting the dead and
celebrating their lives. Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen and
his colleagues were honored in the Amhara region;
General Seare Mekonnen and Mjaor General Gezae
Aberra were not only honored but they have also
enjoyed (as if they were alive!) the highest
respect ever; the people of Tigray and the many
delegations who came from the rest of Ethiopia
have extended admiration, veneration, reverence,
and approbation to these great Generals. There has
never been in Ethiopian history where a funeral
service of such magnitude was organized for the
Generals in Tigray.
In concluding this essay, I
like to underscore that the Abiy Government must
now shoulder a huge responsibility to calm the
Ethiopian nation-state and bring solace to the
family of the victims. Additionally, the Ethiopian
Government must now seize the moment in rendering
justice and bringing the criminals before the
court of law; arresting people en mass is not
going to be a solution to the current complicated
problem, and the Government must not act alone in
the decision making process; as a matter of
course, it should operate hand-in-glove with the
Ethiopian parliament. I am of the opinion that a
joint session of the House of Peoples’
representatives and House of Federation should be
held to investigate the Bahir Dar and Addis Ababa
tragic incidents; the relatively emasculated EPRDF
should also call an emergency meeting to
investigate the same incident; and the Ethiopian
Defense Forces should remain alert at all times in
order to thwart any move that undermines the unity
of the Ethiopian people and violates the
sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ethiopia.
The Semien Ez (the Northern Division of the
Ethiopian Defense Force) especially must jealously
guard against possible conspiracy directed against
Ethiopians and their country.
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