Idea Editorial, June 11, 2005

                                    Bullets should Not Destroy Ethiopian Ballots

We have been following the May Ethiopian elections of 2005 with some cautious optimism, and we are saddened by the culmination in violent clashes and subsequent killings of 27 students, but it is not at all surprising given the mirage nature of Ethiopian politics (see www.africanidea.org/mirage.html) and the inability of the government to reconcile its differences with opposition parties.

The present government of Ethiopia, by and large, constitutes elements that were members of the Ethiopian Student Movement in the late1960s and early 1970s and they have witnessed police brutality and repression against students. They should have been the first to understand the demands of students and sympathize with their movements and actions, let alone shoot them cold-blooded. They should have been the first to win the side of the students and rally them around their orbit. Unfortunately, the present authorities, far from winning support from students, have found themselves in  relatively irreconcilable conflict with overall student action.

With the massacre of the students, it looks, at least in the short haul, that the political atmosphere as a whole will remain inimical to the status quo. Unless the students and other members of society regroup themselves in the form of armed militia and declare war on the government, no government force should have been allowed to have taken brute physical force against innocent and unarmed students.

Some commentators and Ethiopian observers have the tendency of instinctively equating student actions with that of government counter-measure. This, however, is a wrong paradigmatic analysis. To begin with, we are not comparing here two contending sport teams, in which case the contest could be on equal footing and understandably fair and square. The government, above all, at least theoretically, is expected to lead, safeguard, and protect the larger society given the enormous machinery at its disposal. The government also has the responsibility to protect its citizens (including those who belong to the opposition) and ensure peace and stability for the nation.

If we further examine the complexity of the Ethiopian elections, however, we may come across some glossed over politics (or hidden agenda) of some elements in the opposition. The latter, despite its tremendous success in the current elections, did not exhibit political wisdom. Although it is entitled to file complaints against the ruling party with respect to ballot fraud, it should have seized the moment in the dynamics of the elections  instead of rejecting the electoral process and threatening not to assume its seats in parliament. Winning 200 seats (from a mere 12 seats in 2000) is unprecedented by Ethiopian standard. The opposition should be credited for pursuing the legal and peaceful way to settle its dispute with the ruling party with regards to the ballots. But, again, it should have anticipated the counter-measure of the government. In our previous editorial (Mirage Politics and the Ethiopian Elections) of May 13, 2005, we made the following pertinent statement: “the time for regime change and transformation is on the horizon, but the opposition should not make a mistake in underestimating the EPRDF. The ruling party has reached a vanishing point, but it would not disappear like a phantasmagoria. The Ethiopian opposition forces including the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF) and CUD should exhibit awareness of domestic, regional, and global politics and  must be ready to shoulder a huge historical task in mobilizing and organizing the Ethiopian people.” The message we conveyed then, however, did not seem to penetrate into the minds of the opposition.

The opposition also adamantly denied its involvement in the recent student demonstrations, although some close observers have sensed that there are some misguided elements within the CUD who could have ulterior motives and altogether undermine the political mission of the opposition. Above all, the opposition, far from entertaining ethnic animosity, has an obligation to educate its supporters not to indulge in ethnic altercations, let alone encourage Tigray phobia within its orbit. We are not suggesting that the CUD or other opposition do foster anti-Tigrayan sentiments, but it is highly possible that there could be chauvinist elements within the opposition who could foment ethnocentric values. The latter is a recipe for disaster and we suggest that such archaic ethnic hatred must be dislodged at all costs before it creates havoc to Ethiopian unity.

Whether the EPRDF won more than 300 seats remains to be seen, and whether the CUD/UEDF) coalition won more than 200 seats has to be attested yet. After all, before all the ballots are counted in all polling stations (and some ballots have disappeared mysteriously), we witnessed the killings of dozens of students. The government should have not banned peaceful demonstrations unless it has lost confidence in the outcome of the elections, and the students should have waited a little longer for any eventuality. Their actions exhibit infantilism vis-à-vis a ferocious and timid police and Special Forces. In terms of political gain as a whole, the spontaneous student demonstrations were counter-productive to the CUD/UEDF at least in the short run. In the long run, it is the government that will lose ground, because no government could hope to govern peacefully by incarcerating and/or shooting the most articulate segment of the population.

In any event, however fledgling and fragile the electoral democracy in Ethiopia, the process was fascinating by African standard. Out of 26 million registered voters, 21 million have voted. There was no such thing in Ethiopian history and we must be able to appreciate any political progress, however small. Therefore, the Ethiopian opposition should seriously consider and rethink its position and reconcile its differences with the ruling party, not only for its own political objectives but also for the sake of peace and stability in Ethiopia.

Now that the talks have begun between the opposition and the ruling party, the golden opportunity for peaceful transition should not be lost in the midst of confusion and political manipulation. Both, the ruling and the opposition should elevate themselves beyond skirmish politics and revive the ballots and don’t let the bullets destroy them.