IDEA Editorial    

May 13, 2005

             Mirage Politics and the Ethiopian Elections

Ever since the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Party (EPRDF) assumed power in 1991, Ethiopians have encountered mirage politics that could literally blur vision, but at close scrutiny it is in many ways a deceptive Machiavellian ploy. Following the schism within the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF), the EPRDF is a much more diminished party than its earlier stature when it began as a coalition of the TPLF, the Ethiopian Peoples Democratic Movement (EPDM, later renamed Amhara National Party) and the Oromo Peoples Democratic Organization (OPDO).

The OPDO was clearly a hurriedly assembled organization and a quick fix with apparent mission to substitute and outshine the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF); the EPDM (a splinter from the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Party (EPRP), though an appendage to the TPLF, had some relative independence at the outset but soon became more of an extension of the TPLF rather than an autonomous regional organization. In all probability, despite the semblance of a pan-Ethiopian government, it was the TPLF and its core leadership that was in firm control of Ethiopian politics of the 1990s. This political equation, however, will change due to unforeseen (at least by its members) political clashes within the TPLF and its umbrella, the EPRDF.

Once the Meles group consolidated in the early 1990s, and the ouster of former EPDM leaders like Tamrat Layne was accomplished, clique politics of a Trojan horse type began to control the reins of power. Furthermore, when the split within the TPLF occurred and the core central committee and polit-bureau members like Gebru, Tewolde, Aregash, Siye etc. were systematically excluded from political power by the Meles group, then known as the Palace Group, two members of the EPDM, namely Addisu Legesse and Tefera Walawa became the rising stars. The Meles group, thus would not solely depend on its Tigrayan comrades, but shift gears and strengthens its relations with other elements of the EPRDF.  It is at this juncture that elements of the Trojan horse were unveiled and mirage politics became crystal clear to the masses of the people.

It is important to understand why the Palace Group managed to consolidate and cling to power and other prominent political figures simply were thrown out. Between 1991 and 1994 and till the first election of 1995, the politics in Ethiopia very much reflected the spirit of coalition and transitional government with some semblance of “democratic governance.”  This clamor, however, will change into a mirage orchestrated and manipulated by a Trojan horse clique at the upper echelon of the national government.

In the formative years of EPRDF consolidation, not too many Ethiopians and Ethiopian observers detected the Machiavellian politics of the Palace Group, but the latter was meticulously doing its homework. Gradually, but surely it began employing its deceptive tactics and managed to confine the core leaders of the TPLF, including Siye (former Defense Minister), to the periphery (Tigray Regional State). This clever move on the part of the Palace Group resulted not only in having two distinct cliques within the EPRDF, but it also enabled Meles and his entourage to fully control the government apparatus, the army and the secret service, as well as foreign relations and finance. He who controls the above attributes controls everything else in power politics.

Thus, following the Ethio-Eritrean conflict, the Algiers Agreement, and subsequent commotion and schism within the EPRDF and the TPLF, it became abundantly clear that the now ousted leaders had no real political power, but their honesty. And honesty, in the midst of shrewd Trojan horse politics becomes a meaningless asset, and that is why innocence in politics is almost always considered oxymoron and that is why honest leaders, however charismatic, inevitably lose ground in the wilderness of shark politics.

Moreover, the Palace Group, in contrast to the ousted dissidents, is a tight knit clique that already had established a network through village-cum-ethnic as well as marriage ties. But since this underpinning and sublime informal structure was glossed over by an Ethiopian and/or EPRDF rubric, a fabric that can effectively camouflage the relationship of the inner circle of the Palace elements, the village politics of the latter was not clearly visible.

The survival instinct of the Palace Group is also by far great compared to the dissidents and other opposition groups in current Ethiopian politics. The fight or flight operations of the amygdala and the quick choice of political games of the prefrontal cortex also seem to be higher in the palace Group than in the dissidents and the opposition as a whole. The amygdala can trigger an emotional response before the cortical centers have fully understood what is happening, and that is why, now in retrospect, it becomes crucial for the opposition that it cannot wait to make choices in politics and reminisce the past as in the ‘lizard brain.’

Nevertheless, mirage politics of a Trojan horse type cannot last in the face of a grand human experience, otherwise known as history. No force, however robust and gigantic, can withstand the deluge of history. Once the forces of history gather momentum, like an avalanche, they would trample over the retrograde and reactionary elements of society. This scenario of a mammoth historic tide is fast approaching in Ethiopia now. The massive outpourings of May 8, 2005 sponsored by Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) is a clear indication of the beginning of the end of an era in Ethiopia. To be sure the massive turnout of two million strong is the making of the Ethiopian people and not of individuals and/or parties, but credit is obviously accorded to CUD, a party that has yet to prove its legitimacy as a party of unity and an alternative to EPRDF.

The time for regime change and transformation is on the horizon, but the opposition should not make a mistake in underestimating the EPRDF. The ruling party has reached a vanishing point, but it would not disappear like a phantasmagoria. The Ethiopian opposition forces including the United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF) and CUD should exhibit great awareness of domestic, regional, and global politics and must be ready to shoulder a huge historical task in mobilizing and organizing the Ethiopian people. Once the opposition is united along pan-Ethiopian agenda and manages to undertake its historical mission, it will win the hearts and minds of the Ethiopian people, and will win political power legally and peacefully. That will be the end of mirage politics, the relegation of Trojan horse into the dustbin of history, and the beginning of democratic governance in Ethiopia.